000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure continues to build southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific supports gale force N winds in the Tehuantepec region. Winds are expected to briefly increase to minimal storm force this evening. Winds will diminish back to gale-force early on Sat, then prevail through Sun morning. Seas are forecast to peak to near 22 ft with the strongest winds. Large seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, reaching the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Mariners transiting across or in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this and take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Pacific Significant Swell: A cold front is forecast to drop SSE over the northern waters through the weekend. Its associated low pressure center will shift southward to near 29N by late Sat. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to its W will usher in fresh to strong northerly winds. These winds may reach near-gale-force speeds on Sat. A set of NW to N swell will follow the cold front. Latest Wave model guidance indicates that the swell is likely to generate seas of 12-15 ft at 10-12 seconds roughly N of 20N and W of 125W on Sat before subsiding on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on these events. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 01N106W. The ITCZ continues from 01N106W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-07N between 86W-105W, and from 06N-15N and W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for more information. NW swell continues to propagate across the Baja California offshore waters, extending southward to the waters west of Cabo Corrientes. The swell is producing seas of 6-7 ft over these waters. light to gentle NE winds are across the Baja offshore waters, while fresh to strong northerly winds are along the Gulf of California, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle NW winds are over the remainder Mexican offshore zones, with seas of 4-6 ft in a long-period NW swell. For the forecast, aside from the storm force gap wind event, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of United States will support fresh to strong NW to N winds across most of the Gulf of California through this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 89W along with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with seas of 4-5 ft primarily in long-period S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through early next week, pulsing to near-gale each night with rough seas. Fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will increase to strong speeds Sat through Sun, reaching downwind of the Gulf to near 04N. The Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to bring large W to NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters beginning on Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information regarding upcoming significant seas in the western part of the area. High pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ to the south supports an area of fresh trades N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W. Seas are 8-11 ft in long-period N swell. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 5-8 ft primarily in northerly swell. For the forecast, aside from the upcoming significant swell event, fresh NE to E trade winds are forecast to persist over the west- central waters through the upcoming weekend, with overall little change to seas within this part of the area. $$ ERA