000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A weakening cold front will move across Baja California Norte and N Gulf of California this evening. Strong to gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of the front beginning this morning. These SW winds may peak near 40 kt early this evening. NW winds may also briefly reach minimal gale force in the wake of the front over the northern Gulf of California tonight. Seas in the N Gulf of California should reach 10 or 11 ft with the strongest winds, which is very large for these waters. Winds and seas will quickly diminish by Wed morning as the front moves east of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A weakening cold front has reached our N forecast waters and will be bringing an increase in winds and seas. A large NW swell with a 15-20 second period will follow this front with seas building to near 18 ft across the NE waters today into Wed night. Seas of at least 12 ft are anticipated to occur east of 130W and north of 25N. By Wed night, seas should gradually drop below 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from Colombia near 09N75W to 01N110W. The ITCZ extends from 01N110W to 03N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07W W of 124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the N Gulf of California. A large Eastern Pacific Swell Event is anticipated for the NE waters. See the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are occurring over the Pacific waters from Manzanillo northward, with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 8-12 ft in NW swell in the Baja California offshore waters with highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere along the Pacific waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California, except 3 to 5 ft in the northern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, a weakening cold front will move across Baja California Norte and N Gulf of California this evening. Strong to gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of the front beginning this morning. NW winds may also briefly reach minimal gale force in the wake of the front over N Gulf of California this evening. Winds and seas will quickly diminish by Wed morning as the front moves east of the area. Large, long-period NW swell affecting the offshore forecast waters of Baja California will continue through Wed before diminishing late in the week. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Fri morning, possibly reaching storm force by Fri night, and remaining gale force through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale NE to E winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region at night with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Panama with seas 6-8 ft in mixed wind waves and S swell. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through Fri, perhaps reaching near gale-force at night Fri and Sat. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little this week, except pulse to strong in the evenings through tonight. Looking ahead, the next strong Tehuantepecer gap wind event should cause large W to NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters beginning Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends across the northern forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W with a large 1037 mb high pressure north of the area at 39N140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge/high and the ITCZ to the south is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades north of 06N west of 120W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft. A weakening cold front has entered the N waters extending from 30N116W to 27N125W to 29N135W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds accompanied by 10 to 13 ft seas are noted in the wake of the front. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. For the forecast, the front will gradually push southeastward, bringing strong to near-gale NW to N winds north of 27W east of 125W today and Wed before diminishing. Additionally, a large NW swell event will also follow in the wake of the cold front, as discussed above in the Special Features section. As the ridge/high diminish by Thu and Fri, the NE to E trades will weaken across the region. In the extended range, the next cold front should reach the 30N border on Fri and approach the Baja California offshore waters on Sat, bringing increasing winds and building seas. $$ GR