000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Tue evening. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front beginning early Tue. Winds will briefly reach minimal gale force in the wake of the front across the northern Gulf of California Tue evening and night. Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft with the strongest winds. Winds and seas will quickly diminish by Wed morning as the front moves E of the area. At that time, gale force winds in the 35 to 45 kt range are expected E of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico. The winds blow between canyons over a high terrain (gap wind effect) and then intensify. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A cold front will reach the northern forecast waters tonight bringing an increase in winds and seas. A new swell event will follow this front building seas to 17 or 18 ft across the NE waters Tue night into Wed morning affecting the offshore forecast waters of Baja California norte, and covering roughly the waters N of 26N and E of 126W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 16 to 18 seconds, will continue to spread southward on Wed. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft by Wed night, but a large area of 8 to 11 ft will continue to affect the waters N of 20N and W of 110W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1008 low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 01N100W. The ITCZ extends from 01N100W to 03N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within about 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 129W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern Gulf of California. See the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico supports fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte and N of Punta Eugenia, with seas of 8 to 11 ft in long period NW swell. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are noted across the remainder of Baja California offshore waters with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NW winds near Cabo San Lucas, and in the southern Gulf of California along the SE periphery of the aforementioned ridge. Fresh to strong SW winds prevail in the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican coast outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in NW swell over these regions, except 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of California. A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong northerly winds across the Tehuantepec area. The most recent scatterometer pass reveals winds in the 20 to 30 kt range. seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. The center of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has shifted eastward towards the central Gulf. This will result in veering winds in the Bay of Campeche and the Chivela Pass. Based on this weather pattern, winds will diminish in the Tehuantepec region below 20 kt in about 6 to 12 hours. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event for Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Fri morning, possibly reaching storm force. For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for details in a Gale Warning for the northern Gulf of California, and a new swell event affecting the offshore forecast waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong force NE winds are ongoing offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region. Similar wind speeds are observed over Lake Nicaragua based on a recent ASCAT pass. Fresh to strong N winds are downwind of the Gulf of Panama, particularly from 03N to 07N between 79W and 81.5W where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Outside the gap wind areas, mainly light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell E of 90W, and in mixed swell W of 90W due to the recent gap wind events in Papagayo and Tehuantepec. The latest Volcanic Ash Advisory indicates that a plume of volcanic ash is moving westward from the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala, but it is not reaching the coast. Little change is expected in this forecast through 14/0930Z. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through Fri, reaching near gale-force at night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to strong at night starting tonight through mid-week. The gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and the strong pulses from the Papagayo area will continue to generate large swell that will propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters into Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1040 mb located near 40N142W has a ridge extending SE to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the waters north of the ITCZ to about 23N and W of 130W based on recent satellite derived wind data. Large NE wind- generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 9-13 ft based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are N of the ITCZ to 20N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ, mainly moderate winds prevail while gentle to moderate winds are noted S of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the high pressure will move SE ahead of a cold front while weakening some. This system will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds through mid week, mainly west of 120W, with 8 to 12 ft wave heights. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere through Fri, with wave heights to 8 ft north of the ITCZ through mid week. $$ GR