000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Tue evening. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front beginning Tue morning. Winds will reach minimal gale force in the wake of the front. Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft with the strongest winds Tue evening and night. Winds and seas will quickly diminish by Wed morning as the front moves E of the area. At that time, strong gale force winds are expected E of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico. The winds blow between canyons over a high terrain (gap wind effect) and then intensify. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1008 low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 02N100W. The ITCZ extends from 02N100W to 03N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within about 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of California. See the Special Features section for more details. The Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec has expired. The pressure gradient between low pressure off Baja California Norte and surface ridging associated with strong high pressure centered well to the northwest near 37N146W is supporting fresh W to NW winds off Baja California Norte with seas of 8 to 14 ft in long period NW swell. Highest wave heights are near Guadalupe Island. Moderate N to NW winds are across the remainder Baja California offshore waters with seas of 5 to 8 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California,north of 29N. This is ahead of a 1012 mb low pressure off Ensenada. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the remainder Gulf of California and southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 7 ft in NW swell over these regions, except to 5 ft in the northern Gulf of California. A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains and the western Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong northerly winds across the Tehuantepec area. Current peak seas are 11 ft in the region of strongest winds. The center of high pressure will shift eastward towards the central Gulf of Mexico this morning. This will result in veering winds in the Bay of Campeche and the Chivela Pass. Based on this weather pattern, winds will diminish in the Tehuantepec region below 20 kt in about 12 hours. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event for Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Fri morning, possibly reaching storm force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale force NE winds are ongoing offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending to near 90W. Seas are 9 ft in this area. Volcanic ash from the Fuego Volcano may be reaching the coastal waters of Guatemala, near the border with Mexico. However, the expected area of coverage may not be enough to support the issuance of an ashfall advisory. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 03N with seas of 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds associated with both the Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo gap winds are affecting El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters along with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with seas to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through Fri, reaching near gale-force at night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to strong at night starting tonight through mid-week. The gale- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and the strong pulses from the Papagayo area will continue to generate large swell that will propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters into Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure prevails over the area. An area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the waters north of 10N and west of 120W. Large NE wind-generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas are noted. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building east- southeastward supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds through mid week, mainly west of 120W, with 8 to 12 ft wave heights. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere through Fri, with wave heights to 8 ft north of the ITCZ through mid week. $$ GR/EC