000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130848 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure and associated ridging across the Gulf of Mexico continue to support a gale-force gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec with 35 kt winds extending to 15N and fresh NNE winds extending as far as 11N. These winds are depicted well in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Current peak seas are 14 ft in the region of strongest winds. The center of high pressure will shift eastward towards the central Gulf of Mexico early this morning. This will result in veering winds in the Bay of Campeche and the Chivela Pass, and the end of the gale event in the Tehuantepec region later this morning. Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front will move across Baja California and the Gulf of California on Tue. Strong SW gap winds ahead of the front will reach minimal gale force by Tue afternoon. The gales will diminish overnight as the front moves through. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 02N95W. The ITCZ extends from 02N95W to 02N120W to 03N140W. No significant weather is evident. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning over the Tehuantepec region and the upcoming gale in the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between low pressure off Baja California Norte and surface ridging associated with strong high pressure centered well to the northwest near 37N146W is supporting fresh W to NW winds off Baja California Norte with seas of 8 to 14 ft in long period NW swell. Highest wave heights are near Guadalupe Island. Moderate N to NW winds are across the remainder Baja California offshore waters with seas of 5 to 8 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California,north of 29N. This is ahead of a 1012 mb low pressure off Ensenada. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the remainder Gulf of California and southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 7 ft in NW swell over these regions, except to 5 ft in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, gale-force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through the overnight hours. Low pressure and associated trough will move across the northern Gulf of California this morning, with associated fresh to strong winds continuing into the afternoon hours. A cold front will move across Baja California Norte tonight and Tue. SW gap winds will start again over the northern Gulf of California ahead of this front, reaching gale force into Tue night. Fresh to strong NW winds are also forecast for the Baja Norte offshore waters Tue night. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event for Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Fri morning, possibly reaching storm force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale force NE winds are ongoing offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending to near 90W. Seas are 9 ft in this area. Volcanic ash from the Fuego Volcano may be reaching the coastal waters of Guatemala, near the border with Mexico. However, the expected area of coverage may not be enough to support the issuance of an ashfall advisory. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 03N with seas of 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds associated with both the Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo gap winds are affecting El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters along with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with seas to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through Fri, reaching near gale-force at night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to strong at night starting tonight through mid-week. The gale- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and the strong pulses from the Papagayo area will continue to generate large swell that will propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters into Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure prevails over the area. An area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the waters north of 10N and west of 120W. Large NE wind-generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas are noted. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building east- southeastward supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds through mid week, mainly west of 120W, with 8 to 12 ft wave heights. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere through Fri, with wave heights to 8 ft north of the ITCZ through mid week. $$ Christensen