000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure and associated ridging across the Gulf of Mexico continue to support a gale-force gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec with 40 kt winds extending to 14N and fresh NNE winds extending as far as 10N. Current peak seas are 18 ft in the region of strongest winds. The center of high pressure will shift eastward towards the central Gulf of Mexico by Mon morning. This will result in veering winds in the Bay of Campeche and the Chivela Pass, and the end of the gale event in the Tehuantepec region late Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 04N87W to 02N97W. The ITCZ extends from 02N97W to 03N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between 129W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning over the Tehuantepec region. A cold front continues to move across the Gulf of California supporting fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf N of 29N with seas to 4 ft. The pressure gradient between a newly formed low pressure NW of Punta Eugenia and surface ridging associated with strong high pressure centered near 37N144W is supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds N of Punta Eugenia with seas of 8 to 15 ft in long period NW swell. Recent scatterometer data confirmed this area of winds. Moderate N to NW winds are across the remainder Baja California offshore waters with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the remainder Gulf of California and SW Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 7 ft in NW swell over these regions, except to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gale-force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through late Mon morning. The cold front across the Gulf of California will weaken and move E of the area this evening, thus briefly diminishing winds to fresh speeds. New low pressure and associated trough will move across the northern Gulf of California early on Mon and fresh to strong winds will resume and continue through the late afternoon hours. On Mon night a new cold front will enter the region and will support the development of gale force winds Tue afternoon and Tue night. Fresh to strong NW winds are also forecast for the Baja Norte offshore waters Tue night. Otherwise, the next gap wind event for Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale force NE winds are ongoing offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending to near 92W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N with seas of 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds associated with both the Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo gap winds are affecting El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters along with seas of 8 to 15 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with seas to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through the middle of the week. Winds are expected to reach near gale-force at night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to strong at night starting tonight through mid-week. The gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue to generate large NW swell that will propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through tonight along with locally strong winds for the Guatemala offshore area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure prevails over the area. An area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the waters from 07N to 30N and W of 125W. Large NE wind-generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas are noted. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building east- southeastward supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds to the through Sun. Seas up to 12 ft will prevail over the western part of the area through today as the large NW swell propagates into that part of the area. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere through mid-week with the exception for an area of fresh to strong winds along the ITCZ mainly W of 130W on Tue/Wed. $$ Ramos