000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092043 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 09 2023 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected Pacific Significant Seas: Seas of 10-12 ft in steep NE wave at 7-9 seconds prevail across the waters from 10N to 22N and W of 134W. Seas there will subside briefly below 12 ft this morning before large NW enters the NW waters during the afternoon. Large NW swell has been generated by a deep low pressure system across the central North Pacific and an associated frontal system. This large swell will move into the NW waters with the front this afternoon, and gradually outrun the front as it weakens. Seas of 12 ft and greater will reach 30N140W by late this afternoon and spread southeastward to near 130W through Fri afternoon. NW swell at 14-15 seconds is expected to dominate. Strong high pressure behind the front will increase the pressure gradient across the regional waters from NW to SE into the weekend, and create a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds to the west of 125W by Sat afternoon. Peak seas around 15 ft will reach the NW waters early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico Fri and move quickly across the W half of the Gulf. Strong high pressure behind this front will build southward across eastern Mexico and induce gale force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri evening. These will quickly become strong gale-force winds Fri night through Sat. This will produce another broad reaching area of gap winds that will extend well beyond the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend, with strong winds reaching to 10N100W by Sat afternoon. Storm force winds are briefly possible early Sat night. Seas are likely to peak around 20 ft from late Sat afternoon through late Sat night. Gale conditions are expected to continue across Tehuantepec through late Sun before diminishing. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10N75W and continues southwestward to 05N85W to 04N95W to 04N104W. The ITCZ extends from 04N104W to 02N112W to 07N124W to 08N130W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 126W-132W, and also within 30 nm of the trough between 91W-96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure persists north of the Pacific waters W of 120W. Its associated ridge across the Baja California offshore waters has weakened since yesterday. Fresh to strong NNW winds continue across the Gulf of California, where seas are 5-7 ft across central and southern sections, and to 8 ft near the coast at Cabo San Lucas. Moderate N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, and become NE well offshore of Baja Sur. Seas continue to slowly subside here, and are currently 6-8 ft in fading NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere offshore of southwestern Mexico. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere offshore Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will continue to weaken and drift northeastward through tonight. This will maintain fresh to strong NNW winds through the Gulf of California this morning, then slowly diminish through late Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds across the Baja waters will diminish slightly through Fri morning, except for narrow zones of fresh NE gap winds that will spill from the Gulf of California across Baja and into the Pacific waters. Seas will slowly subside area wide during this time. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force starting Fri evening. See the special features sections above for more details. Fresh to strong NW winds will move into the far northern offshore waters of Baja California from late Fri night into Sun, as a cold front moves through the area and dissipates, accompanied by building seas in NW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area. Fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 05N, where seas are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through early next week. Winds may reach near gale-force Sat and Sun night. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight, then remain moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama into Sat. A significant gale-force gap wind event is forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region over the weekend. The ensuing winds are expected to send large NW swell across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high pressure remains N of the area near 33N129W. The associated broad ridge continues to weaken, ahead of an approaching cold front. This pressure pattern is producing a shrinking area of fresh NE to E winds across the waters from 08N to 21N and W of about 130W. Large NE wind generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through these waters resulting in gradually subsiding seas of 8-12 ft. Please see the Special Features section for information concerning these significant seas. East of 110W, seas are 5-8 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are noted. An area of broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with isolated showers and thunderstorms is observed N of the ITCZ from 10N to 16N and between 127W-137W. This area of cloudiness and shower/thunderstorm activity is being aided by a broad mid- level trough located to its NW. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will drift northeastward and gradually weaken through tonight. Fresh NE trade winds and seas to 12 ft will subside to just below 12 ft today. A cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu afternoon, accompanied by large NW swell. High pressure behind the front will act to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds to the west of 130W Thu night through Fri. Seas will build again to 12 ft and greater over the western part of the area on Fri as the large NW swell begins to propagate into that part of the area. The weakening front will approach the Baja offshore waters Sat, with the strong high pressure behind it tightening the gradient resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over much of the area waters W of 120W through the weekend. $$ Aguirre