000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Seas: High seas affecting the open Pacific waters the past 2 days continue to gradually subside tonight. Seas of 10-12 ft in steep NE wave at 7-9 seconds prevail across the waters from 10N to 22N and W of 134W. Seas there will subside briefly below 12 ft Thu morning before large NW enters the NW waters during the afternoon. Large NW swell has been generated by a deep low pressure system across the central North Pacific and an associated frontal system. This large swell will move into the NW waters with the front Thu afternoon, and gradually outrun the front as it weakens. Seas of 12 ft and greater will reach 30N140W by late Thu afternoon and spread southeastward to 130W through Fri afternoon. NW swell at 14-15 seconds is expected to dominate. Strong high pressure behind the front will increase the pressure gradient across the regional waters from NW to SE into the weekend, and create a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds to the west of 125W by Sat afternoon. Peak seas around 15 ft will reach the NW waters early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico Fri and move quickly across the W half of the Gulf. Strong high pressure behind this front will build southward across eastern Mexico and induce gale force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri evening, and quickly become strong gales Fri night through Sat. This will produce another broad reaching area of gap winds that will extend well beyond the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend, with strong winds reaching to 10N100W by Sat afternoon. Storm force winds are briefly possible early Sat night. Seas are likely to peak around 20 ft late Sat afternoon and night. Gales are expected to continue across Tehuantepec through late Sun before diminishing. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 02N111W. The ITCZ extends from 03N113W to 07.5N137W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of trough between 88W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 116W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure persists north of the Pacific waters W of 120W, and has weakened modestly across the Baja California offshore waters during the past 24 hours. Fresh to strong NNW winds continue across the Gulf of California, where seas are 5-7 ft across central and southern sections, and to 8 ft near the coast at Cabo San Lucas. Moderate N winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, and become NE well offshore of Baja Sur. Seas continue to slowly subside here, and are currently 6-8 ft in fading NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere offshore of southwestern Mexico. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere offshore Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will continue to weaken and drift NE through Thu. This will maintain fresh to strong NNW winds through the Gulf of California through Thu morning before slowly subsiding Thu and Fri. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds across the Baja waters will diminish slightly through Fri morning, except for narrow zones of fresh NE gap winds that will spill from the Gulf of California across Baja and into the Pacific waters. Seas will slowly subside area wide during this time. Further east, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting early Thu, then increase to gale-force starting Fri night. See the special features sections above for more details. Fresh to strong NW winds will move into the far northern offshore waters of Baja California from late Fri night into Sun, as a cold front moves through the area and dissipates, accompanied by building seas in NW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to 89W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area. Fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 05N, where seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through early next week. Winds may reach near gale-force Sun night. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight, then remain moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama into Sat. A significant gale-force gap wind event cross Tehuantepec over the weekend is expected to send large NW swell across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high pressure remains N of the area near 33N134W. The associated broad ridge continues to weaken, ahead of an approaching cold front. This pressure pattern is producing a shrinking area of fresh NE to E winds across the waters from 08N to 20N and W of about 130W. Large NE wind generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through the regional waters, resulting in gradually subsiding seas of 8-12 ft. Please see the Special Features section for information concerning these significant seas. East of 110W, seas are 5-8 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are evident. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and north of the ITCZ between 116W-138W. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will drift NE and gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh NE trade winds and seas to 12 ft will prevail across the area west of 135W tonight, then subside to just below 12 ft on Thu. A cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu afternoon, accompanied by large NW swell. High pressure behind the front will act to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds to the west of 130W Thu night through Fri. Seas will build again to 12 ft and greater over the western part of the area on Fri as the large NW swell begins to propagate into that part of the area. The weakening front will approach the Baja offshore waters Sat, with the strong high pressure behind it tightening the gradient resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over much of the area waters W of 120W through the weekend. $$ Stripling