000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure persists just north of the discussion waters, and is maintaining a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the region north of 10N and west of 114W. The latest data from satellite altimeter and drifting buoys confirm significant wave heights of 8 to 14 ft from 10N to 25N and W of 115W, with peak seas of 12-14 ft from 17N to 21N and W of 132W. Seas W of 130W are dominated by NE waves at 7-9 seconds mixed with NW swell of 11-13 seconds. E of 130W, NW swell at 11-13 seconds dominates. East of 125W, these high seas will begin to gradually subsiding tonight and below 12 ft by Wed morning. West of 125W, seas will peak at 12 to 15 ft tonight, then diminish very slowly below 12 ft by Thursday morning, as the strong winds shift W of 140W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 09.5N74.5W to 00N85W. The ITCZ extends from 04S100W to 06N126W, then resumes from 05.5N129W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09.5N between 111W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters, producing fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California, where seas are 4-6 ft across central portions and 6-9 ft southern portions. Fresh to strong NE gap winds are spilling into the Pacific waters offshore of Todos Santos, Mexico. Fresh N to NE winds are also spilling into the nearshore Pacific waters of central Baja. Large NW swell continues to spread southeastward across the Baja offshore waters, with 8-11 ft seas reaching as far south as Socorro Island. See the Special Features section above for more details on this significant swell. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are elsewehre along the coast of Mexico north of 19N, with 6-9 ft seas, diminishing to gentle speeds south of 19N, where seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, strong high pressure continues to dominate the Baja California offshore waters, and will maintain fresh N to NE winds and 6-9 ft seas through tonight, with winds and seas then diminishing through Thu morning. Strong NNW winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will persist through Fri. Peak seas of 8-9 ft will persist across the southern Gulf tonight through Wed morning. Looking ahead, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Thu, with gales starting Fri night and possibly increasing to storm force Sat morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to 89W. In this area, seas of 6-7 ft prevail. N to NE winds are fresh in the Gulf of Panama, producing seas of 4-5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua will prevail through Sat. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong across the Gulf of Panama into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1033 mb high pressure is centered just N of the area near 34N133W. The associated broad ridge is maintaining a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the waters W of 115W tonight, to the N of 07N. Large NE wind generated seas are combining with large NW swell moving through the regional waters to produce a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater. Please see the Special Features section for information concerning these significant seas. East of 110W, seas are 6-8 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak short wave trough in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ near 125W. For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the waters west of 1115W through tonight, then gradually weaken through Thu. Strong tradewinds and large seas to at least 12 ft will prevail across the area west of 120W through tonight before diminishing from E to W through Thu. A new cold front is expected to enter the waters north of 20N and west of 130W Thu, followed by new large NW swell. $$ Stripling