000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070926 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure centered just N of the region has become established over waters N of about 15N and W of 110W. The associated broad ridge is producing a tight pressure gradient between this high and the lower pressure associated with the ITCZ, and leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds over much of the area waters N of 20N. Drifting buoys across the offshore waters W of 126W show that these winds have generated large and steep NE wind waves at 7-9 seconds, that are merging with moderate to large NW swell with periods of 11 to 13 seconds. This is producing a significant band of high seas at 10-15 ft, extending from the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro, southwestward to 140W, from 13N to 25N. Seas are dominated by N to NW swell E of about 122W, and mixed NE waves and NW swell to the W of 122W. These high seas will prevail into midday Tue afternoon across the waters E of 122W, before gradually subsiding, and through Wed evening across the far western waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 0.5N82.5W. The ITCZ extends from 03N97W to low pres 1010 mb near 04N126.5W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09.5N between 123W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09.5N between 134W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters W of 110W, and is producing strong N winds across the Baja California waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, and across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California. Large NW swell continues to spread southeastward across the Baja offshore waters, and is producing seas to around 14 ft offshore of Baja Norte, with seas to 8 ft extending southeastward to offshore of Cabo San Lucas. See the Special Features section above for more details on these high seas. Elsewhere S of Cabo San Lazaro, fresh to moderate N to NW winds prevail to 20N and Cabo Corrientes, then become mainly gentle to moderate NW to W winds to offshore of Puerto Angel. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mainly NW swell prevail south of 20N. Strong N wind prevails across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region S to 14.5N, where seas are 6-8 ft. These conditions will prevail through morning before winds become variable by Tue afternoon. For the forecast, strong high pressure across the Baja California offshore waters will dominate through Tue, maintaining strong N winds and large seas. Winds will veer NE and begin to diminish Tue through Wed, with NE gap winds spilling through the peaks of central and southern Baja. Seas will subside to less than 12 ft Tue afternoon and then continue to gradually diminish Tue night through early Fri. Strong N winds in Gulf of California tonight will continue to spread S through the entrance of the Gulf by morning, then persist in the Gulf through Thu night. Recent satellite derived altimeter data showed that seas across the south central Gulf had 8-9 ft. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely to persist across the southern Gulf and waters southeast of Cabo San Lucas Tue night through Wed before subsiding. Elsewhere, strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will diminish tonight, but increase again late this week. Gales are likely to return there by Fri night, with another significant gale event forecast for the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to 90W. In this area, seas of 6-8 ft prevail. N-NE winds are fresh in the Gulf of Panama, producing seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will prevail tonight through Thu night, and produce seas 8 to 9 ft. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight across the Gulf of Panama, then weaken modestly through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1035 mb high pressure center is north of the area near 35N132W, and is producing a tight pressure gradient between it and lower pressure along the ITCZ. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 8-15 ft have expanded across the waters W of 120W and extend southward to 05N, while peak seas of 12-15 ft are N of 15N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 6-8 ft in mixed NE and NW swell. Strong high pressure will dominate the waters west of 120W through Tue, then gradually weaken through Thu. Strong tradewinds and large seas to 14 ft will prevail across most of the area W of 115W through Tue before winds and seas gradually diminish from E to W Wed through Thu. See the Special Features section above for details. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu, followed by large NW swell. $$ Stripling