889 
AXPZ20 KNHC 062010
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Seas: High pressure centered N of the region
is building S today over waters N of about 20N. The tight
pressure gradient between this high and the lower pressure 
associated with the ITCZ is leading to fresh to strong N to NE 
winds over area waters. These winds combined with NW swell with 
period 8 to 10 seconds spilling into the region are inducing seas
of 8 to 13 ft for areas N of 18N. These high seas will prevail 
into Wed, before gradually diminishing as the high pressure 
weakens. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near 08N75W to 02N90W. The ITCZ 
extends from 02N90W to 03N116W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N W of 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong N wind prevails across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region S to
15N. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail across this area. Similar 
conditions will prevail through tonight. Strong N winds prevail 
across waters W of Baja California and in the central Gulf of 
California. Seas continue to increase offshore Baja California 
Norte, with heights nearing 13 ft. See the Special Features 
section above for more details on these high seas. Elsewhere S of
Baja California, mainly gentle to moderate NW winds prevail with
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mainly NW swell. 

For the forecast, strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region will diminish tonight, but increase again late this week. 
Gales are likely to return by Fri night. Elsewhere, strong high 
pressure building into the Baja California offshore waters will 
dominate through Tue morning, bringing strong N winds and large 
seas. Strong N winds in the northern Gulf of California this 
morning will spread S through through tonight, then persist in 
the Gulf through Thu night. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, extending offshore to 89W. In this area, seas 
of 7-9 ft prevail. N-NE winds are fresh in the Gulf of Panama, 
producing seas of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are 
elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo region will prevail tonight Thu night, reaching near 
gale- force during the overnights, and produce seas to 9 ft. Fresh
N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight across the Gulf 
of Panama, then weaken modestly through Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1037 mb high pressure north of the area is near 35N135W is 
tightening the pressure gradient between it and lower pressure 
along the ITCZ. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 8-13 
ft have expanded southward to 05N. Moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 6-8 ft in mixed NE and NW 
swell.

Strong high pressure will dominate the waters west of 120W through
Tue, then gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong
tradewinds and large seas will prevail across most of the area W
of 115W through Tue before winds and seas gradually diminish 
from E to W Wed through Thu. See the Special Features section 
above for details. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW 
waters Thu.

$$
KONARIK