000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure across the NE Pacific is building across the Pacific waters east of 125W tonight, behind a dissipating cold front that has moved across Baja California Norte and the extreme northern Gulf of California. Strong northerly winds have begun to spread across the near and offshore waters of Baja California northward of 26N, and will increase to 20-30 kt overnight through Mon and spread southward to the waters offshore of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas will build during this time to 8-14 ft, with peak seas of 12-14 ft prevailing across the waters of Baja Norte north of 27N Mon morning through Mon night. Winds and seas will then begin to diminish Mon night through Tue night as high pressure weakens. Additionally, the pressure gradient between the strong high pressure and lower pressure along the ITCZ will induce a band of strong ENE winds between 16N and 26N to the W of 120W tonight through Tue night. NW swell generated behind the front will combine with increasing NE wind waves in this region to produce an area of 10-13 ft seas from 15N to 25N to the W of 125W beginning early Mon and persisting through Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 09N74W to 02.5N89W. The ITCZ extends from 01.5N92W to 02.5N116W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05.5N to 09N W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight satellite derived scatterometer winds showed strong northerly winds of 25 to 30 kt persisting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to 14.5N. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail across this area. Large seas of 8 ft and greater previously generated by this event will continue to affect the SW adjacent waters as far 110W and southeastward across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through morning, before quickly diminishing. Afterward, winds in the Tehuantepec region will remain strong through Mon night. A cold front has moved across Baja Norte and the northern waters of the Gulf of California tonight, and has become ill defined in satellite imagery. Strong high pressure behind the front is building into the region tonight, producing strong northerly winds across the Baja waters N of 26N, where seas have built to 9 ft. Winds and seas will increase across the Baja waters during the next 24 hours. See the Special Features section above for more details. In the Gulf of California, winds remain light to gentle with seas to 3 ft. Moderate northerly winds remain at the entrance of the gulf extending to the Jalisco offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas 5 to 7 ft in mixed NE and NW swell. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and dissipate over the next 24 hours, with increasing winds to 20-30 kt and seas 8-14 ft expected across the Baja waters. Strong northerly winds will commence in the northern Gulf of California waters just prior to sunrise Mon and spread southward to the entrance to the Gulf by late mon Night, then persist through Thu. Seas during peak winds are forecast to 9 ft across the southern Gulf. The next gap wind event in Tehuantepec is forecast to start Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, and the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend offshore to 90W, where seas of 7-9 ft prevail. N-NE winds are fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of Panama, reaching beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 05N, and producing seas of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through Thu, reaching near gale- force at night, and producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. N to NE swell generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight before ending. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong at night across the Gulf of Panama, through Mon night, then weaken modestly through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front has moved SE across the northern waters in the past 24 hours, and through Baja Norte tonight. Satellite imagery suggests the front has recently dissipated from central Baja to near 21N140W. 1037 mb high pressure north of the front near 35N135W is tightening the pressure gradient between it and lower pressure along the ITCZ. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 8-12 ft have expanded southward to 07N and are W of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere E of 120W. Seas there are 6-8 ft mainly in mainly NE to E swell, generated from a significant gales event across the Tehuantepec region in recent days. Strong high pressure will dominate the waters west of 120W through Tue, then gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong tradewinds and large seas will prevail across most of the area W of 120W through Tue morning before winds and seas gradually diminish from E to W Wed through Thu. See the Special Features section above for details. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu night. $$ Stripling