000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052153
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near 06N77W to 06N83W to 05N90W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03N91W to 02N120W to beyond 04N140W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between
119W and 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near gale force northerly winds continue to affect the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region where peak seas have diminished to 10
ft as high pressue in the Gulf of Mexico continue to shift
eastward. Seas of 8-10 ft generated by this event will continue 
to affect the SW adjacent waters as far 110W and southeastward 
across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through 
this evening before quickly diminishing. Afterward, winds is the
Tehuantepec region will remain strong through Mon afternoon.

A weakening ridge extends southeastward across the offshore 
waters of Mexico ahead of an approaching cold front along 118W. 
The pressure gradient between the front and the ridge ahead of it
it is tightening and already supporting moderate to fresh NE 
winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters as
indicated by recent scatteromter data. Seas along the Baja
California Norte offshore waters have built to 7 ft with this
approaching front. In the Gulf of California, winds remain light
to gentle with seas to 3 ft. Moderate northerly winds remain at 
the entrance of the gulf extending to the Jalisco offshore 
waters. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas to 7 ft in 
mixed NE and NW swell.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front will approach Baja 
California late today, with high pressure building across the 
Baja waters behind it. This will produce fresh to near gale force
NW-N winds offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro 
northward this evening through Mon night, and through the Gulf 
of California waters Mon morning through Thu. Seas during peak 
winds are forecast to build to 13 ft in NW swell across the Baja
Norte peninsula, and to 9 ft across the southern Gulf. The next
gap wind event in Tehuantepec is forecast to start Thu. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, and the Gulf
of Papagayo region and extend to 92W, where seas of 7-10 ft 
prevail. Fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching 
beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 02N, and producing seas of 5-8 
ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 
ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region will prevail through mid-week, reaching near 
gale-force at times, and producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. 
Large fresh swell generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force 
gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala 
and El Salvador offshore waters through this evening. Fresh to 
strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama, mainly at 
night, through Mon night. Moderate winds will then dominate the 
Panama region through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weakening surface ridging dominates the open waters N of 14N 
between the Baja California offshore waters to 140W. A cold front  
extends from 30N121W SW to 22N139W. Fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and seas of 8-13 follow this front. The pressure gradient 
between the surface ridge and lower pressure from the ITCZ 
supports a belt of fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to 22N 
and W of 118W.

For the forecast, the cold front will approach the Baja 
California Norte waters today. Strong high pressure will build 
in the wake of the front with fresh to strong trades covering 
most of the waters west of 120W by Sun afternoon, and moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then. Similar 
conditions will continue into early next week. NW swell of 8 ft 
or greater associated with the front will spread SE across the 
northern waters through tonight, then expand across most of the 
waters west of 110W Sun night, aided by the fresh to strong 
trades.

$$
Ramos