000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a former cold front is producing a very tight pressure gradient across southern Mexico. Strong gale force N winds are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec expanding southward to 13N. Seas across this area are in the 11-18 ft range. Winds will gradually diminish below gale-force by Sun morning. Large seas generated by this event will spread southward to 04N and southeastward across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 07N77W to 08N83W to 05N86W. The ITCZ extends from 02N87W to 01N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N W of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds in this region are expected to end Sun morning, then remain strong through Mon. Strong winds extend well offshore to near 10N105W. High pressure located W of the Baja California peninsula continues to extend a ridge southeastward across the offshore waters of Mexico while high pressure N of the area has shifted eastward. This has reduced the pressure gradient in the region, now supporting mainly light to gentle winds with seas to 3 ft in the Gulf of California and 5-7 ft in NW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a decaying cold front will approach Baja California by late Sun, with high pressure building across the Baja waters behind it. This will produce fresh to near gale force NW-N winds offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward Sun through Mon night. Seas during peak winds are forecast to build to 13 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds along the Baja California offshore waters along with associated swell will gradually decay Tue through late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds associated with the passage of the front will begin in the northern Gulf of California Mon morning and extend through the entrance of the gulf through late mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, and the Gulf of Papagayo region, where seas of 6-9 ft prevail. Fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching beyond the Azuero Peninsula and producing seas of 4-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through mid-week, reaching near gale-force at times and producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. Large fresh swell generated by a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Sun evening. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama, mainly at night, through Sun night. Moderate winds will then dominate the Panama region through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell associated with the remnants of a stationary front is producing seas of 8-10 ft north of 25N and west of 125W. Surface high pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 30N122W, with an associated ridge dominate the open waters N of 10N W of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 108W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Seas of 7-9 ft cover the waters north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 110W due to mixed NW and NE swell. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event extends well southwest and will reach to 107W by Sat. A new cold front will move southeast of 30N140W by early Sat, and approach the Baja California Norte waters Sat night through Sun. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to strong trades covering most of the waters west of 120W by Sun, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then. Similar conditions will continue into early next week. NW swell of 8 ft or greater associated with the front will mainly be across the northern waters through tonight, then expand across most of the waters west of 110W, aided by the fresh to strong trades. $$ Ramos