000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2105 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to sweep across the Gulf of Mexico on Fri. A robust ridge will build behind the frontal boundary over the southern United States and northern Mexico. Tightening pressure gradient will support a strong gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This event is forecast to last from late Thu night to early Sun, reaching peak winds near 45 kt Fri night into early Sat. Winds to storm force are possible during this time. Seas will build quickly to near 20 ft Fri night into early Sat. Conditions will improve on Sun with winds diminishing below gale force on Sun and seas decreasing below 8 ft by late Mon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 02N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 02N95W to 04N112W and continues from 07N119W to 07N130W and beyond 06N140W. A surface trough is analyzed from 13N114W to 04N119W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 16N and between 110W and 119W. Similar convection is occurring from 03N and 08N and between 119W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure regime dominates the offshore waters of Mexico, sustaining gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are noted in the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico, with the strongest winds near the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured these winds with even a few flags depicting strong speeds. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. The highest seas are present in the western offshore waters. Fresh to occasionally pulsing strong northerly winds are evident in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending south to 15N. Seas in the area described are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, winds will pulse to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec nightly through early Thu, then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Thu afternoon. However, a strong gale gap wind event is forecast to begin late Thu night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, peaking near 45 kt Fri night into early Sat. Winds to storm speeds are possible during this time. Seas are expected to build quickly to near 20 ft late Fri into Sat. Conditions begin to slowly improve on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that fresh to strong NE-E gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaraguan offshore waters region, extending westward to 92W. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters. Fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama, extending south to 05N. Seas of 4-6 ft in the waters described. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail into early next week. Seas will be near 8 ft in the areas of strong winds. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse nightly through Thu morning. Large swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec strong gale force gap wind event is expected to begin to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters starting Fri night and begin to subside on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge is anchored near 30N126W and dominates the waters of the eastern tropical Pacific. A cold front is approaching the northwest corner of the basin with some showers about to enter the region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly trade winds, mainly south of 20N and west of 115W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary, mainly north of 27N and west of 133W. Seas in the waters described are 8-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and seas to 10 ft will persist in the trade waters through the rest of the week. The subtropical ridge will slide east-southeastward toward northern Baja California through early Thu in response to the cold front approaching the far NW part of the area. This cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft through early Thu night as it reaches from near 30N131W to 26N136W and to 25N140W by that time. $$ DELGADO