556 
AXPZ20 KNHC 010405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 01 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 
southern Panama and to 05N90W to 05N98W and to 05N107W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N107W to 06N113W, where it briefly pauses east of 
a trough. It resumes west of the trough at 06N118W and continues 
to 07N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is seen within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 120W-125W, within 30 
nm S of the ITCZ between 125W-128W and also between 132W-139W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front extends south and southwestward from 
low pressure of 1015 mb that is just inland the northern coast
of the Gulf of California to across Baja California Sur,
continuing southwestward and westward from there to 22N118W and 
well into the central Pacific waters near 21N. Fresh to strong 
NW winds are over the far northern Gulf of California. Seas there
are in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 
2-4 ft are present in the remainder of the Gulf of California.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds are occurring in the offshore
waters of Baja California, with the strongest winds affecting the
waters behind the dissipating cold front. Seas in the waters
described are in the range of 6-9 ft due to long-period NW swell.
Fresh to strong N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the dissipating frontal boundary will continue
moving across the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of 
California through tonight while weakening. The fresh to strong 
NW winds behind the front in the northern Gulf of California will
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Wed morning. Winds will 
pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed and Thu 
morning. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event 
is forecast starting Fri, likely reaching strong gale speeds late
Fri into early Sat. Seas will build to near 19 ft late Fri into 
Sat.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are affecting the waters of the
Gulf of Papagayo and extend into the Nicaraguan offshore waters
and westward to near 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Per
latest ASCAT data, fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Panama 
reach S to near 05N. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will prevail through the rest of the week and 
into the upcoming weekend. Pulsing fresh to locally strong N 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds Thu 
into the weekend. Large swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap-wind event is expected to begin to 
propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
starting Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered N of the area near 33N133W, with a 
pressure of 1021 mb. An associated ridge axis extends from
this high center southeastward through a dissipating cold front 
and to near 21N112W. The aforementioned dissipating cold front 
stretches from Baja California Sur to 22N118W and southwestward 
and westward to 21N122W to 21N128W to 21N133W and to 23N139W. 
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the dissipating 
cold front. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft due to long-period
NW to N swell. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in fresh to locally 
strong NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 
117W. In addition, a newly developed trough that extends from 
near 15N114W to 07N116W is helping to sustain these winds. Seas 
over these waters are 8-10 ft, with the seas outside the fresh 
to strong being induced by the NW to N swell. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the northerly swell over the northern waters
producing seas to 10 ft is forecast to continue southward over 
the next few days while slowly subsiding. Fresh to locally 
strong trade winds will continue over the next few days as the 
pressure gradient tightens, and as the trough currently along a 
position from near 15N114W to 07N116W tracks westward. The 
aforementioned high center near 33N133W will weaken, and slide 
east- southeastward toward northern Baja California through early
Thu in response to a cold front that will be entering the far NW
part of the area late Wed into early Thu. This cold front is 
expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas
of around 8-10 ft.

$$
Aguirre