000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311517
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1505 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 04N95W to 08N112W and to 07N119W. The ITCZ stretches 
from 07N119W to 06N130W and to beyond 06N140W. Isolated to scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 14N and between 108W
and 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from a low pressure system
over the SW United States. The front is draped across the 
northern Gulf of California and the central Baja California 
peninsula and then extends westward into the eastern tropical
Pacific. No significant convection is associated with this
feature. The remainder of the region is dominated by a
subtropical ridge positioned well to the northwest of Mexico.
Fresh to strong NW winds are present behind the frontal boundary
in the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft.
Gentle to moderate northerly winds are evident in the remainder
of the Gulf of California, along with seas of 1-3 ft.

Moderate to occasionally fresh NW-N winds are found in the
offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5-10
ft, with the highest seas occurring in the western offshore
waters of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the
rest of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across 
the rest of the Baja California peninsula, and the Gulf of 
California through tonight while weakening. The moderate to 
strong NW to N winds behind the front will diminish to moderate 
speeds during the morning. Otherwise, high pressure in the wake 
of the front will shift E along 30N, becoming centered near 
30N124W by Fri and remaining about stationary through Sat night. 
Winds will diminish and seas will subside during this time. The 
next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible 
starting Fri. This event is expected to be on the high range of 
gale force winds, with some chance of winds reaching storm force.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds continue across the Gulf of
Papagayo and Nicaraguan offshore waters, extending westward to
about 90W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft, with the maximum seas
occurring in the Papagayo region. Fresh northerly winds are found
in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N. Seas in the
waters described are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will prevail through the rest of the week and 
into the upcoming weekend. Pulsing fresh to locally strong N 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds Thu 
into the weekend. Large swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap-wind event is expected to begin to 
propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
starting Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure system near 37N136W extends southward
into the eastern tropical Pacific, reaching southeastward the
Revillagigedo Islands. Satellite imagery depicts a cold front
extending from Baja California near 27N114W to 23N127W and no
deep convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are present behind the frontal
boundary. NW-N swell is producing seas of 7-11 ft in these 
waters, with the highest seas near 29N123W. This was confirmed by
a recent altimeter satellite pass. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds north of the ITCZ to 28N 
and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with the 
highest seas occurring over the western waters and north of 20N. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the northerly swell over the northern waters
producing seas to 11 ft is forecast to continue southward over
the next few days and slowly weaken. The moderate to fresh trade
winds will continue through Tue, increasing to locally strong Wed
though Thu as the pressure gradient tightens, and decreasing
again on Fri. The aforementioned high pressure that will be 
shifting E along 30N in response to a cold front that will be 
entering the far NW part of the area late Wed into early Thu. 
This cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S 
to SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft.

$$
DELGADO