000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292015
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N95W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 08N between 98W and 111W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of the
Baja California peninsula, while a surface trough extends across
the Gulf of California. Moderate winds are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of Baja 
California Norte, and off Cabo Corrientes. Moderate to fresh
winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the 
open waters off Mexico, 2-4 ft over the northern Gulf of
California, and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Baja 
California Norte region enhancing winds and seas N of Punta 
Eugenia Mon and Mon night. Fresh to strong southwest winds over 
the northern Gulf of California will diminish by early Mon 
afternoon. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift E 
along 30N through Thu, with winds diminishing and seas subsiding.
The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is 
possible starting the end of the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region and Nicaragua offshore waters along with seas of 
8-10 ft. The strong winds reach as far west as 89W. Moderate to 
fresh winds and seas of 8 ft associated with both the Papagayo 
and Tehuantepec gap wind events are affecting the Guatemala and 
El Salvador offshore waters. Fresh N to NE winds, along with 
seas to 8 ft, are across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and seas 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near gale force NE 
winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through late 
tonight, with fresh to strong wind speeds for the rest of the 
forecast period. Fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
diminish to moderate speeds Thu. Swell generated from the earlier
gale- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec across the
El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters will subside by this 
evening. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters of 20N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N
of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 125W. Seas over this area are in the
7-9 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE wind waves. Gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail elsewhere across the 
discussion waters.

For the forecast, NW swell will slowly subside through tonight.
A new set of NW swell propagate into the waters south of 30N 
tonight into Mon. The swell is expected to build seas to 8 to 10 
ft N of 28N between 122W-134W. The moderate to fresh trade winds 
will continue through the middle of next week.

$$
AL