000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds associated with a strong surface ridge across the Gulf of Mexico are funneling across the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico. The accelerated gap winds are gale force up to 45 kt supporting seas to 20 ft in the region of Tehuantepec. Gale- force winds will persist into Sat morning. However, fresh to strong winds will gradually diminish through Sun morning. Currently, the fetch of fresh N to NE winds and seas greater than 8 ft reach 10N100W and is forecast to amplify and reach to 107W Sat before starting to diminish Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 05N84W to 04N96W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N96W to 07N114W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 79W and 87W and from 04N to 09N between 109W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong high pressure centered well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE across the Baja California offshore waters. Strong high pressure is also over the Great Basin, supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 8 ft along the Gulf of California. These winds are moving across the mountain gaps of Baja California Norte and affecting the peninsula offshore waters N of 24N where seas are in the 5-9 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 5-9 ft in NW swell are over the remainder Baja and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, aside of the the gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong to near-gale NW winds will persist over the Gulf of California through this evening. Fresh to locally strong NE winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will diminish to moderate speeds late this afternoon. A cold front is forecast to move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters late Mon into Tue with building winds and seas N of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force NE-E gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua offshore waters along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Wind waves of 8 to 13 ft associated with the strong gap wind in the Tehuantepec region are extending across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft prevail. For the forecast, surface ridging extending S to the Caribbean will force fresh to near gale force NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through midweek. Seas to 11 ft will continue through Sat night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight through early Sun with seas building to 8 ft. Meanwhile, swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to support seas to 11 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure centered well N of the area extends a ridge S to near 12N. This is maintaining a somewhat tight pressure gradient against the ITCZ, which continues to support moderate to fresh winds N of 07N and W of 110W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft, under the influence of NW swell. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E to SE winds are occurring south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, NW swell will slowly subside through the weekend. A new set of NW swell will drop south of 30N Mon, along with fresh winds. Meanwhile, the moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue into the middle of next week. $$ KONARIK