000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico today. This will support gale force winds across the Tehuantepec region tonight through Fri night. Winds will peak around 40 kt on Thu and Thu night. Seas will peak near 17-18 ft Thu night and Fri. This gap wind event will produce a swath fresh to strong winds and 8 ft seas or greater that will propagate well SW of the Tehuantepec region and reach 100W by Thu night. Conditions will slowly improve Sat into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Colombia/Panama near 07N78W to 04N93W. The ITCZ extends from 04N93W to 03N111W to 07N128W. A trough stretches from 12N126W to 05N130W with the ITCZ continuing from 07N132W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 122W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N and E of 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong 1038 mb high pressure is centered well northwest of the area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters with seas ranging 8-10 ft in NW swell. Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail in the northern Gulf. Seas are 5-7 ft with the highest in the southern Gulf. Elsewhere, scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate winds over the southwest Mexico offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds also prevail over the southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas are with seas ranging 4-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail over the Baja California offshore waters through tonight. Winds will increase fresh to strong on Thu as high pressure builds over the U.S. Great Basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist over the Gulf of California through Fri. Conditions over Baja California and the Gulf of California will improve later on Fri. The NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters will spread southward to the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters later today into tonight. The swell will eventually subside over the region by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds prevail over the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the offshore waters. Seas across the Central American offshore waters range 4-7 ft. Seas are 7-8 ft off the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters due to a SW swell event. Scattered thunderstorms are noted south of the Gulf of Panama and near the Colombia coast. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will build to 7 ft tonight and 8-11 ft Thu night through Sat night. Meanwhile, seas will build to near 12 ft by Fri in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters as swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. A SW swell event will maintain 7-8 ft seas over the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands offshore waters through tonight. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast with seas of 3-5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell area is moving through a large portion of the forecast waters. The 12 ft seas extend N of 08N and W of 124W with seas peaking at 14 ft. Meanwhile, a 1038 mb high pressure is centered well north of the area near 45N131W. This high along with lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to fresh easterly winds N of the ITCZ to 31N and west of 110W. The mixed swell found in these waters is producing seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring south of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft in the waters described. For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue progressing southeastward in the NW waters. The swell will reach as far south as the Equator and as far east as 100W through Fri. Seas will slowly subside through the weekend. The moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue through the weekend. $$ AReinhart