000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230310
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N90W to 06N117W. A 1007 mb low press is located
near 07N119W. The ITCZ continues from 05N122W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and
between 112W and 122W. Similar convection is noted from 06N to 
10N and between 128W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The strong subtropical ridge positioned well to the northwest of
the offshore waters of Baja California extends southwestward to
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure system and lower pressures over the SW United States
support fresh to strong NW winds north of 29N and west of 117W.
Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail in the remaining offshore waters
of Baja California. 

Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found in the 
Gulf of California. Moderate easterly winds are also evident well
south of Guatemala and El Salvador due to the fresh gap winds
emanating from the Papagayo region. Seas in the waters described
are 4-5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
prevalent in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Baja California 
area tonight into Mon, producing fresh to strong NW winds and a 
set of NW swell west of Baja California. Strong northerly winds 
are also expected in the northern and central Gulf of California 
Mon into Tue. High pressure building over Great Basin will 
support the continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds in 
the Gulf of California through Thu. The next gale force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible starting midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail in
the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 88W. Moderate
northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Seas in these
waters are 1-3 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, 
are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly in the
Gulf of Papagayo. A SW swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft 
from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early this week. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast with seas of 3-5 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure system remains north of the area and
extends southward into the waters of eastern tropical Pacific. 
The pressure gradient between this subtropical ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is sustaining fresh to 
strong winds south of 23N and W of 125W. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft south of 23N and
west of 125W, with the highest seas occurring west of 137W. Seas
of 5-7 ft are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will slowly subside
into early next week. A new set of NW swell will enter the NW 
waters early this week, with seas peaking near 15 ft over these 
waters Mon night. The fresh to strong tradewinds will diminish 
early this week. A cold front will enter the northern waters
tonight, with fresh to strong winds W of the front through Mon 
night. 

$$
DELGADO