000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222001
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N93W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N93W to 06N114W. It continues from 04N121W to 
beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N 
to 11N between 113W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends west of the Baja California
peninsula, with surface troughing across the Baja peninsula.
Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are noted 
over the southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 1-3 ft, are found over the northern Gulf of California. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California 
peninsula, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the Gulf of
California and west of the Baja California peninsula, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Baja California 
area tonight into Mon, producing fresh to strong NW winds and a 
set of NW swell west of Baja California. Strong NW to N winds 
are also expected in the northern and central Gulf of California 
Mon into Tue. High pressure building over Great Basin will 
support the continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds in 
the Gulf of California through Thu. The next gale force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible starting midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail over the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly in the
Gulf of Papagayo. A SW swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft 
from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early this week. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast with seas of 3-5 
ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered N of the area. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the
ITCZ to near 22N and W of 125W. Moderate to fresh winds are 
noted elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate 
winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range N of 05N and W
of 120W, with seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will slowly subside
into early next week. A new set of NW swell will enter the NW 
waters early this week, with seas peaking near 15 ft over these 
waters Mon night. The fresh to strong tradewinds will diminish 
early this week. A cold front will enter the northern waters
tonight, with fresh to strong winds W of the front through Mon 
night. 

$$
AL