000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220855 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 05N77W to 04N82W to 06N91W. The ITCZ stretches from near 06N91W to 04N101W to 07N113W, then continues from 04N118W to 04N130W to beyond 04N140W. A 1011 mb low pres is located near 05N116W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and west of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1034 mb high pressure system is positioned near 38N132W and extends southeastward into the eastern tropical Pacific waters, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of California due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the central and southern Gulf. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are found in the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 8 ft in the Gulf of California will diminish later today. However, a cold front is expected to move across the Baja California area tonight into Mon. This will result in fresh to strong NW winds and increasing NW swell west of Baja California Norte tonight and Mon. Strong NW to N winds are also expected in the northern and central Gulf of California Mon into Tue, once again filtering through Baja California gaps and across the Baja coastal waters. Afterward, strong high pressure will build again in the Great Basin and will support the continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California through Thu. Otherwise, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Wed night. Gale force winds are possible for this region continuing through early in the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery within 100 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are found in the rest of the offshore waters of Central America and NW South America. Fresh to strong easterly winds remain Papagayo region, extending westward to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh northerly winds continue in the Gulf of Panama, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish late today into tonight, then pulse nightly Mon night through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast during the daytime hours. Seas are forecast to be in the 5-8 ft range, building to 9-10 ft late in the week. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu with seas of 3-5 ft. A SW swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge, positioned near 38N132W, continues to assert its influence across the waters of the eastern tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure system and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 23N and west of 115W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the areas of the strongest winds, especially near 11N135W. A recent altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 12 ft near 9.5N135W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are evident in the satellite-derived wind data across the rest of the basin to the north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast, long-period NW swell supporting seas of 8-12 ft will continue to propagate across the waters N of the ITCZ and west of 115W through the weekend, getting reinforced by a larger set of NW swell early this week. That set will build seas to around 15 ft N of 20N along 140W by Mon evening. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The high pressure will strengthen some during the weekend, keeping the fresh to strong trade wind flow N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W through today. These winds combined with the NW swell will help to build seas to up to 12 ft in the trade wind belt. A cold front drop S of 30N late today into Mon with fresh to strong winds N of 27N between 118W and 128W through Mon night. The pressure gradient should weaken some thereafter allowing for winds to diminish Tue into Wed. $$ DELGADO