000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Colombia near 06N77W to 04N85W to 06N90W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N90W to 04N101W to 06N112W, then continues from 04N117W to 04N129W to beyond 05N140W. A 1011 mb low pres is located near 06N115W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N and west of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The strong pressure gradient due to a 1036 mb high pressure system over the Great Basin of the United States and lower pressures over Mexico sustains fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California, especially in the central and southern portions of the basin. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the northern Gulf of California waters. Fresh to strong winds are funneling across the Baja California mountain passages and spreading across the offshore waters of the peninsula. The strongest winds are found off Baja California Sur. Seas are 5-8 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to locally moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue in the Gulf of California through Sun with seas up to 8 ft. Conditions improve late Sun. However, a cold front is expected to move across the Baja California area Sun night into Mon. This will result in fresh to strong NW winds and increasing NW swell west of Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Strong NW to N winds are also expected in the northern and central Gulf of California Mon into Tue, once again filtering through Baja California gaps and across the Baja coastal waters. Afterward, strong high pressure will build again in the Great Basin and will support the continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California through Thu. Otherwise, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Wed night. Gale force winds are possible for this region continuing through early in the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are present in the Gulf of Papagayo, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are evident in the Gulf of Panama, along with seas of 3-4 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, then resume Mon night through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast during the daytime hours. Seas are forecast to be in the 5-7 ft range, building to 9 ft by Thu. Moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama are expected to diminish Sun morning. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu with seas of 3-5 ft. A SW swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early in the upcoming week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high pressure system is positioned near 35N133W and extends southward into the eastern tropical Pacific waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong easterly winds south of 23N and west of 115W. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the areas of the strongest winds. A recent altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 11 ft near 16N135W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are present in the remainder of the basin to the north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast, long-period NW swell supporting seas of 8-11 ft will continue to propagate across the waters N of about the ITCZ and west of 115W through the weekend, getting reinforced by a larger set of NW swell early next week. That set will build seas to around 15 ft N of 20N along 140W by Mon evening. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The high pressure will strengthen some during the weekend, keeping the fresh to strong trade wind flow N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W through Sun. These winds combined with the NW swell will help to build seas to up to 12 ft in the trade wind belt. Another cold front may drop S of 30N late Sun into Mon with fresh to strong winds N of 28N between 118W and 128W through Mon night. The pressure gradient should weaken some thereafter allowing for winds to diminish slightly. $$ DELGADO