000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jan 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Colombia near 07N77W to 03N96W. The ITCZ extends from 03N96W to 05N109W, then continues from 04N113W to 04N125W to beyond 04N140W. A 1012 mb low pres is located near 05N111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N and W of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong 1038 mb high pressure system is positioned over the SW United States. The pressure gradient between the the aforementioned subtropical ridge and lower pressures over Mexico sustain fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found in the northern Gulf of California. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to fresh northerly winds in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the strongest winds occurring within 100 nm of Baja California Sur. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. In the reminder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue in the Gulf of California through Sun, with seas building to near 8 ft in the southern and central Gulf by Sat night. These winds will filter through Baja California gaps to west of the peninsula. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move across the Baja California area Sun night into Mon. This will result in fresh to strong NW winds and increasing NW swell west of Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Strong NW to N winds are likely in the Gulf of California Mon into Tue, once again filtering through Baja California gaps westward. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 06N. Seas in the waters described are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, with seas peaking at around 8 ft. Fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama are expected to diminish later today. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere through at least the next several days with seas of 3-5 ft during the weekend. Fresh to strong winds should return to the Papagayo region Mon night into early Tue. A SW swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure system centered over the SW United States extends southward into the eastern tropical Pacific waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong easterly winds south of 25N and west of 115W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the areas of the strongest winds. The latest altimeter satellite pass depict seas of 8-10 ft from 06N to 24N and between 136W and 140W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are present in the remainder of the basin to the north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast, long-period NW swell supporting seas of 8-10 ft will continue to propagate across the waters N of about the ITCZ and west of 115W through the weekend, getting reinforced by a larger set of NW swell early next week. That set will build seas to around 15 ft N of 20N along 140W by Mon evening. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The high pressure will strengthen some during the weekend, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W by Sat, lasting through Sun. These winds combined with the NW swell will help to build seas to up to 12 ft in the trade wind belt. Another cold front may drop S of 30N late Sun into Mon with fresh to strong winds N of 28N between 118W and 128W through Mon night. The pressure gradient should weaken some thereafter allowing for winds to diminish slightly. $$ DELGADO