000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 06N96W to 06N112W. The ITCZ continues from 06N112W to 06N130W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 10N between 101W and 109W, and from 05N to 08N between 127W and 140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 83W and 89W and from 05N to 07N between 78W and 80W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge is just west of the Baja California offshore waters, leading to mainly moderate north winds, where seas are 7 to 8 ft in NW swell. Recent ASCAT data show fresh NW to NNW winds in the southern and central Gulf of California. Seas are likely 3 to 4 ft in this area. Gentle winds are elsewhere with 3-7 ft seas. For the forecast, a cold front extending from Los Angeles, CA to 32N129W will move S, extend from the N Gulf of California to 28N120W early Fri, then weaken as it reaches the S Gulf of California early Sat. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to NNW winds are expected in the Gulf of California Fri night through Sun, with seas building to 9 ft in the south-central Gulf by Sat night. The front will also bring fresh winds to waters west of Baja California, with locally strong winds funneling through the gaps in the mountains. Another pulse of NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia late tonight and early Fri, keeping seas there in 8 to 9 ft range. Looking ahead, another cold front should move from north to south across the Baja California area Sun night into Mon. This will cause fresh NW winds and increasing NW swell west of Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Strong NW to N winds are likely in the Gulf of California Mon into Mon night. Winds could remain strong there into Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range, except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell are noted. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region today. Winds are then forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight through Sat night, building seas to 7 ft. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days with seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds should return to the Papagayo region Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging extends from the north-central waters to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands and covers the waters north of 15N and west of 112W. Moderate winds are noted under the influence of the ridge, with an area of fresh NE to E trade winds from 08N to 22N between 120W and 140W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. The wind-waves are combining with a long-period NW swell, which prevails over the waters north of 15N. Seas of 7-9 ft prevail north of 10N, and 6-7 ft seas are south of 10N. For the forecast, long-period northwest swell will continue to propagate across the waters from 08N to 25N and west of 110W through tonight while slowly subsiding. High pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of about 20N and west of 120W into Fri. A weak cold front will move across the NE waters Fri into Sat. The high pressure will strengthen some during the weekend, in the wake of that front, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W by Sat and lasting through at least Sun. The next swell event is expected to reach the far northwest corner of the discussion area by Fri evening. Looking ahead, a larger NW swell event should enter the NW waters early next week. $$ Hagen