000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the Costa Rica/Nicaragua 
border near 11N84W to 1012 mb low pressure located near 06N106W 
to 05N110W. The ITCZ continues from 05N110W to 06N130W to 
06N140W. No significant convection.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly moderate northwest to north winds. Moderate to 
locally fresh N winds are noted per scatterometer data near Cabo 
San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf 
of California. Light to gentle W to NW winds are seen across the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the 
Tehuantepec region. Seas continue to subside across the offshore 
waters of Baja California, and currently sea heights of 8 to 9 ft
are observed.

For the forecast, the above mentioned ridge will dominate the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least Fri,
producing mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. 
Light to gentle winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region 
through the rest of the week along with 4-6 ft seas due to 
west-northwest swell. Long-period northwest swell will continue 
to propagate over the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula today while subsiding to 6 to 8 ft. Additional pulses
of NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by early
Fri, keeping seas there in 8 to 9 ft range. A cold front will 
sweep southward across the Gulf of California and the Baja 
California Peninsula Fri through Sat while weakening.

Looking ahead, after the frontal passage, expect an increase in 
winds and seas in the Gulf of California, and across the offshore
waters of Baja California as strong high pressure builds in the 
wake of the front. As a result, fresh to strong northwest winds 
are forecast to funnel through the Baja California gaps and into 
the offshore waters, especially S of Punta Eugenia, and across 
the entire Gulf of California from Fri night through Sun. The 
strong NW flow across the central and southern parts of the Gulf 
of California is forecast to build seas to 8 or 9 ft by Sat 
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite derived wind data data provide observations of 
moderate NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to 
near 87W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere based on 
scatterometer data. Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range, 
except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW 
swell are noted.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail 
in the Papagayo region today, then winds are forecast to increase
again to fresh to strong speeds tonight through Sat, building seas
to 7 or 8 ft. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through
at least the next several days with seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft 
during the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb situated near 31N133W has a ridge that 
extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and covers the waters 
north of 15N and west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
under the influence of the ridge, with an area of moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds from 17N to 21N between 120W and 130W based
on recent scatterometer data. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range due 
to a long-period northwest swell. A weak low pressure of 1012 mb 
persists along the monsoon trough near 06N106W and will open-up 
into a trough in about 48 hours while drifting westward.

For the forecast, long-period northwest swell will continue to 
propagate across most of the forecast waters today while slowly 
decaying allowing for a subsiding trend of the seas. High pressure
will dominate most of the forecast waters north of about 15N and
west of 110W for the rest of the week. The high pressure will 
strengthen some during the upcoming weekend, bringing an increase
in the trade wind flow N of the ITCZ to about 15N and W of 120W 
by Sat. The aerial extent of the trades will increase on Sun. The
next swell event is expected to reach the far northwest corner 
of the discussion area by Fri evening. 

$$
GR