000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N84W
to 1012 mb low pressure located near 06N105W to 05N110W. The 
ITCZ axis continues from 05N110W to 06N130W to 06N140W. A cluster
of moderate to isolated strong convection is near the Colombia/ 
Panama border and covers the area from 06N to 07.5N E of 78W to
the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere isolated moderate convection is
noted mainly from 04N to 08N between 77W and 98W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate NW to N winds 
across the offshore waters of Baja California under the influence
of a ridge. Light to gentle winds are noted in the southern Gulf
of California, and between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands. 
Mostly moderate NW winds are observed across the offshore waters
of Mexico between Acapulco and Cabo Corrientes. Light and variable
winds persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Altimeter data indicate
that seas continues to gradually subside across the forecast 
waters, with sea heights of 8 to 11 ft N of 10N and W of 110W.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California through at least Fri, producing mainly
gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Light to gentle winds will 
persist in the Tehuantepec region through the rest of the week 
along with 4-6 ft seas. Long-period northwest swell will continue
to propagate over the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula through this morning, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. The 
leading edge of this swell event is expected to reach the 
vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands by early this afternoon. 
Afterward, the swell will slowly subside through late Thu 
allowing for seas to lower to 6-8 ft.

Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase in the Gulf of 
California during the upcoming weekend as a strong high pressure
settles over the Great Basin of the United States. At the same 
time, fresh to locally strong winds are forecast to funnel 
through the Baja California passes into the offshore waters, 
particularly between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mostly moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf 
of Panama to about 08N while light and variable winds are now 
near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
based on scatterometer data. Long-period northwest swell propagating
through these waters has raised seas to the range of 6-8 ft 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A recent altimeter 
pass confirmed the presence of these sea heights. Elsewhere, seas
are generally in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail in
the Papagayo region through Fri, then winds are forecast to
increase again to fresh to strong speeds Fri night and Sat. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, and 
east of the Azuero Peninsula the remainder of the work-week. Seas
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will subside to 5 to 6
ft late today, except SW of the Galapagos Islands. Winds will be
moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several 
days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is taking control of the weather pattern across 
the area N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Winds are mainly gentle to
moderate per recent satellite derived wind data. Seas are in the 
8 to 11 ft range in NW swell. Moderate NE to E winds are blowing
N of the ITCZ to about 15N and W of 125W. 

For the forecast, large and long-period northwest swell will 
continue to propagate across most of the forecast waters through 
Thu while slowly decaying allowing for a subsiding trend of the 
seas. High pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters N
of 15N and W of 110W the remainder of the work-week. This system
will strenghten some during the upcoming weekend bringing an 
increase in the trade wind flow. The next swell event is expected
to reach the NW corner of the forecast region by Fri evening. 

$$
GR