000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1009 mb over 
NW Colombia near 10N75W, westward to northern Costa Rica and 
southwestward to 10N85W to 07N100W and to 05N112W, where latest 
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ
to 05N120W to 06N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
127W-132W, and also within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
133W-138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the central Gulf of California 
and across the central part of the Baja California Peninsula 
Norte. Southwest to west of 20-25 kt are south of the front over 
the Gulf of California to near 29N along with seas of 4-6 ft. 
Moderate to fresh west to northwest are noted from 28N to 29N. 
Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the central 
section of the Gulf, while gentle northwest to north winds are 
over the southern section. Seas of 4-6 ft are over he northern 
section of the Gulf, while seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere over the 
Gulf. 

A ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. 
Overnight scatterometer data reveals fresh northwest winds west
of the northern and central sections of the Gulf of California,
while gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are west of 
Baja California Sur. These winds extend southward to near 15N. 
Similar winds are along the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo 
and Cabo Corrientes. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, gentle 
southerly winds are observed. Long-period northwest swell 
continues to propagate across most of the offshore forecast 
waters of Mexico, with seas of 10-13 ft north of Punta Eugenia, 
and 8-11 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Seas of 
6-8 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the
northern Gulf of California through this morning as the 
aforementioned cold front continues to shift eastward. Seas of 
5-7 ft are expected with these wind speeds. Light to gentle winds
will prevail in the Tehuantepec region through the week along 
with 4-6 ft seas. Long-period northwest swell will continue to 
propagate across the offshore waters of the Baja California
Peninsula, with seas of 9 to 12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro by 
this afternoon. This swell event will reach the Revillagigedo 
Islands by Wed afternoon, while gradually subsiding. Seas of 6-8 
ft are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California by 
Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds are 
noted per scatterometer data elsewhere. Long-period northwest 
swell propagating through these waters has raised seas to the 
range of 6-8 ft over the offshore waters from northern Costa 
Rica to Guatemala per latest altimeter data pass over these 
waters. Elsewhere, seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail in
the Papagayo region through Fri, then winds are forecast to
increase again to fresh to strong speeds Fri night and Sat. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, and 
east of the Azuero Peninsula the remainder of the work-week. Seas
from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala offshore waters will 
subside by late today while building to 5-7 ft between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere through at least the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a cold front extends across the northern
Gulf of California and Baja California Norte, then continues
southwestward to near 23N120W to 21N130W where it becomes 
stationary to near 23N138W. Winds have diminished to 20 kt 
according to overnight scatterometer data in the wake of the 
front, but long period NW swell with significant wave heights as 
high of 14 ft per latest altimeter data continue to spread across
the northern forecast waters behind the front. Elsewhere, a 
surface ridge dominates the waters north of 10N west of about 
110W. Overnight ASCAT data passes generally depict light to 
gentle winds under the influence of the ridge, except for 
moderate to fresh northeast winds confined to the southern 
periphery of the ridge, where a tighter pressure gradient exists 
between the ITCZ and 15N. Long-period northwest swell dominates 
most of the forecast region, with seas of 8-11 ft across most of 
the waters west of 90W.

For the forecast, large and long-period northwest swell will 
continue to propagate across most of the forecast waters through 
at least Wed. The cold front is forecast to dissipate in about 24
hours while reaching the waters near 20N. Seas are expected to 
gradually subside across the forecast area over the next couple 
of days. Fresh northwest winds following in behind the front are
forecast to spread across the waters to the west of Baja 
California Norte today, then across the waters west of the 
northern part of Baja California Sur through early Wed before 
diminishing to moderate speeds. 

$$
Aguirre