000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia near 
09N75W to 08N77W to 07N90W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 
05N98W to 05N105W. Latest scatterometer data indicates that the 
ITCZ extends from 06N110W to 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the 
trough between 95W-99W and between 101W-104W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SW winds are over the northern Gulf of California
ahead of a cold front that is approaching Baja California Norte.  
High pressure dominates the offshore waters of Baja California 
Sur and the associated ridge extends into the southern Gulf of
California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures inland Mexico currently supports moderate to locally
fresh NW winds roughly across the offshore waters between Cabo 
Corrientes and Manzanillo. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, 
light and variable winds prevail. Long-period NW swell is 
propagating across most of the offshore waters of Mexico, with 
seas generally in the 8-11 ft range N of Acapulco.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the
northern Gulf of California through early Tue as another cold
front moves across the area. Seas will build to 8 ft. Light to 
gentle winds will prevail in the Tehuantepec region through the 
week, with 4-6 ft seas. Long-period NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas 
will subside some today, but another set of large NW swell is 
expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte by
this afternoon, building seas to 10-14 ft N of Punta Eugenia by 
this evening. This swell event will affect the waters N of Cabo 
San Lazaro on Tue with seas of 9-11 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to
near 88W with seas of 8-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds 
are seen in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero peninsula with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere.
Outside of the Papagayo region, long-period NW swell spreading 
across the area is building seas to 6-8 ft over the offshore 
waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Elsewhere seas of 
5-7 ft are noted, except 3-5 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf
of Papagayo through early Tue, then mainly fresh winds will 
prevail through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse 
in the Gulf of Panama, and east of the Azuero Peninsula through 
this morning. Seas from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala offshore
waters will subside by Tue. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere through at least the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front over the northern waters extends from a triple-point
axis just west of southern California, southwestward to 31N120W
to 26N130W and to 27N140W. Fresh to strong NW-N winds and rough 
to very rough seas follow the front. Elsewhere, a surface ridge 
dominates the waters N of 15N west of 110W. Overnight 
scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds under the 
influence of the ridge. An area of moderate to locally fresh 
trades is noted N of the ITCZ to about 14n and W of 135W. Long- 
period NW swell dominates most of the forecast region with seas 
of 8-11 ft across most of the waters weast of 90W.

For the forecast, large and long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across most of the forecast waters through at least
mid-week, with another set entering the forecast region behind 
the aforementioned cold front. The cold front will move across 
Baja California Norte into the Gulf of California by this 
evening, extending from 31N114W to 24N120W while weakening from 
this point to 23N140W. Seas of 12-15 ft are expected in the wake 
of the front N of 27N by this afternoon. As the front moves east 
of the forecast area, expect fresh NW winds across the waters W 
of Baja California Norte by Tue. Seas will gradually subside 
across the discussion area by late Wed.

$$
Aguirre