063 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160353
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to a 1011 mb low pressure
located near 05N96W to 08N105W. The ITCZ continues from 08N105W 
to 10N110W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is near 12N116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening frontal boundary extends across the northern Gulf of
California and Baja California norte to near 25N128W. Fresh to
strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are SE of the front to about 
30N inside the Gulf of California. High pressure dominates the
offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate W to
NW winds are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California
with seas of 8 to 11 ft in long period NW swell, highest S of
Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, light and 
variable winds prevail with seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the
northern Gulf of California through early Tue as a pair of 
fronts moves across the area. Seas will build to 8 ft. Light to 
gentle winds will prevail in the Tehuantepec region through the 
week, with 4-6 ft seas. Long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas
will subside some on Mon, but another set of large NW swell is 
expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte 
by Mon afternoon building seas of 9 to 14 ft N of Punta Eugenia
by Mon evening. This swell event will propagate across the waters
N of Cabo San Lazaro on Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to
near 89W with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds
are seen in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero peninsula 
with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted 
elsewhere. Long period NW swell spreading across the area is
building seas to 7 to 9 ft over the offshore waters from northern
Costa Rica to Guatemala. Elsewhere seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted, 
except 3 to 5 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Mon night, then mainly fresh winds will
prevail through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse
in the Gulf of Panama, and east of the Azuero Peninsula tonight.
Seas from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala offshore waters will 
subside by Tue. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere 
through at least the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large and long period NW swell producing rough seas covers a large
portion of the forecast waters. Seas ranging 8-12 ft extend as 
far south as the Equator and W of 90W.

Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge dominates the waters N of 15N W
of 110W. Another cold front is clipping the far NW part of the
forecast area while a frontal boundary is dissipating over the NE
waters. Fresh to strong westerly winds are ahead of the new cold
front affecting the region N of 28N between 124W and 137W.
Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail. 

For the forecast, large and long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across most of the forecast waters through at least
mid-week, with another set entering the area tonight behind the
aforementioned cold front. The cold front will extend from
30N120W to 26N140W by Mon morning, and from 30N115W to 23N130W 
to 24N140W by Mon evening. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected in
the wake of the front N of 27N.

$$
GR