000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150957
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force N winds will 
end in the next few hours this morning across the Tehuantepec 
area. Seas are currently near 14 ft and will drop below 12 ft
this morning. Winds and seas will diminish below warning 
criteria later this afternoon. Tranquil weather conditions to 
follow through most of the week. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds over the
region are expected to continue over the next several days. The
cold front currently moving over northern Costa Rica is
supporting gale force NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. The
gale force winds will end by this afternoon. Seas are expected 
to build near 11 ft during this time. Strong winds will prevail 
through Mon evening with tranquil conditions to follow through 
most of the week. 

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website 
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Panama near 
07N78W to a 1011 mb low near 04N94W to 07N99W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N99W to 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N and E of 95W and 
from 04N to 13N between 103W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Surface ridging prevails west of Baja California Norte. Moderate
to fresh westerly winds are noted N of 27N, while light to
moderate northerly winds prevail elsewhere S of 27N. In the Gulf
of California, strong to near gale force SW winds are noted in 
the northern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the central and 
southern Gulf. NW swell continues across waters to the west of 
Baja and near SW Mexico with seas ranging 10-13 ft. Elsewhere, 
seas are 8-12 ft over the southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas 
are near 8 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-4 ft 
elsewhere in the Gulf. Showers continue to move over most of Baja
California, the northern and central Gulf of California, and NW
Mexico due to an approaching front. 

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a series 
of fronts will bring persistent strong to near-gale force SW 
winds in the northern Gulf of California through Mon night. Seas 
will build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds. The NW swell of 8
ft or greater offshore Baja California will continue into Monday
and eventually subside by Tue. The 12 ft seas will subside by 
this evening. Another set of large NW swell is expected offshore 
Baja California Norte on Mon through most of the week. Seas will 
peak near 15 ft Mon into Mon night

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the 
Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning.

Fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama to 
the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted in
the Gulf of Fonseca. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. 
Seas are 8-10 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore 
waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Panama and the Azuero
Peninsula and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the rest of the area. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the offshore 
waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to 
fresh N-NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama and near the
Azuero Peninsula through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are expected
to pulse east of the Azuero Peninsula later today and into tonight.
Seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters will 
subside by Tue. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere 
through at least the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell producing very rough seas covers a large portion of the
forecast waters. Seas ranging 12-14 ft are noted N of 02N and W 
of 110W. The 8 ft or greater seas extend as far south as the 
Equator and W of 90W.

Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the area. A cold front
extends from 30N123W to 23N140W. Moderate winds are noted ahead
and behind the front. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds are north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are north of 
the ITCZ to 20N. Moderate to fresh SW winds are S of the ITCZ 
and W of 110W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere.

For the forecast, the 12 ft seas will decay by tonight into Mon 
morning. The 8 ft seas will begin to subside by midweek. 
However, another pair of cold fronts with large, reinforcing 
swell will push south of 30N tonight into Mon. Fresh to strong 
winds north of 28N may accompany both fronts. Very rough seas 
associated with these fronts will likely propagate as far south 
as 24N through midweek. Seas will peak near 16 ft N of 29N and
between 120W and 135W. Meanwhile, high pressure and moderate to 
fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt. Fresh winds will 
prevail through Mon west of 120W as the gradient tightens. 

$$
AReinhart