000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130345 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Fresh to strong winds will begin in the next few hours and quickly increase to gale force after midnight tonight. These winds will continue through Sat night, as high pressure surges across eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. There has been an increasing chance for minimal storm force winds from Fri evening into the overnight hours, and the warning has been upgraded to a Storm Warning. A large surrounding area of gale force winds is expected. Large seas will build with these winds, peaking at 18-20 ft Fri night into early Sat. Fresh to strong winds will prevail Sun morning and diminish to 20 kt or less Sun afternoon. Rather tranquil conditions are forecast for early next week with gentle to moderate onshore flow and 2-4 ft seas in the immediate Gulf. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 07N87W. The ITCZ continues from 07N87W to 07N110W to 07N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N and E of 87W, from 05N to 12N between 116W and 123W, and from 04N to 09N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Troughing extends along the Sierra Madre Occidentales of Mexico. High pressure of 1027 mb centered southwest of the California/Mexico border extends a ridge southeast through the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high and troughing is producing fresh to strong NW-N winds in the central and southern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh N winds filtering through Baja California Sur passages downwind across the waters west of the peninsula, as well as in the northern Gulf of California. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. The latest pulse of NW swell across the Baja waters is producing seas of 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft east of 108W, except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will diminish Fri morning. Fresh to near gale force SW-W winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun evening ahead of a decaying cold front, then may return Mon through Tue both of ahead of and behind another front. Seas will build to 4-7 ft in the Gulf with the fresh to strong wind areas. NW swell of 8 ft or greater offshore Baja California will increase through Fri, peaking to 17 ft NW of Punta Eugenia Fri evening. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the entire offshore waters this weekend. Another set of large NW swell is expected offshore Baja California Mon night through at least Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are across the Papagayo region. Moderate N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, Ecuador, and SW of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days, increasing to near gale force early Sat through early Mon, as a Caribbean cold front moves into Central America. Minimal gale force winds are possible early Sun. Seas will build to 7-10 ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula Fri through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are possible south-southeast of the Azuero Peninsula Fri evening through Sun night. A storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the offshore waters of Guatemala Fri evening through Sat morning. Seas will build to 8-14 ft in this area. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days, except moderate to fresh offshore Gulf of Fonseca Sat through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N128W to 21N140W. Winds have dropped below gale-force west of the front but fresh to strong SW winds continue ahead of the front with fresh to strong W winds behind the front. High to very high seas follow the front, with seas up to 30 ft confirmed by altimeter near 29N138W. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1027 mb centered southwest of the California/Mexico border extends a ridge southwest through 15N130W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 16N and elsewhere southeast of the above mentioned cold front under the ridging. Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ to 16N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8 ft or greater in NW swell covers the waters north of about 03N and west of 108W. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the impressive swell moving over the NW waters will continue to propagate eastward across the waters through the weekend. Seas will subside below 20 ft by Fri evening with the 12 ft seas decaying by Sun morning. The 8 ft seas will continue to cover the majority of the open waters through early next week. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night through Sun west of 125W as the gradient tightens. Another pair of cold fronts with large, reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by early next week. Fresh to strong winds north of 28N may accompany both fronts. $$ AReinhart