252 AXPZ20 KNHC 120335 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW waters Gale Warning: A cold front has entered to far NW waters this afternoon, and extends from 30N138W to 28N140W, then continues on the central Hawaiian Islands. Gale force SW winds, and scattered to numerous moderate thunderstorms, are occurring within 120 nm SE of the front, where seas are 15 to 22 ft in W to NW swell. The front will move E-SE through the northern waters through the end of the week. Gale force winds are expected to persist ahead of the front through Thu afternoon, mainly north of 26N, with seas remaining in the 17-24 ft range. Reinforcing NW swell will move in with this system, with seas behind the front building to around 30 ft near 30N140W by late tonight into early Thu. The front will then quickly weaken Thu afternoon through Fri, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less by late Thu night. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing this evening, with associated seas of 5-7 ft and subsiding. Fresh to strong winds will return across Tehuantepec late Thu evening, quickly increasing to gale force prior to sunrise Fri, and continuing through Sat night, as high pressure surges across eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to reach to 40-45 kt Fri evening and overnight, with seas peaking around 18 ft late Fri night into early Sat. Fresh to strong winds will then be present Sun morning, quickly dimishing to 20 kt or less Sun afternoon. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N76W to 10.5N83W to 05.5N99W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N99W to 08N136W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05.5N to 08N between 114W and 140W, and from 11N to 12.5N between 107W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, troughing extends along the coast of the eastern Gulf of California over NW mainland Mexico. High pressure of 1022 mb located near 29N119W dominates the waters. The pressure gradient between the high and troughing is producing moderate to locally fresh winds northerly across the Baja California offshore waters from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. The latest pulse of NW swell across the Baja waters is producing seas of 8-14 ft from Cabo San Lazaro northward, and 6-8 ft southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds have developing inside the Gulf of California, where seas are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere seas are 4-7 ft from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. For the forecast, outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will prevail across most of the Baja California waters through Thu morning. Seas will remain 8-14 ft to the N of Cabo San Lazaro through this evening, and to 7-10 ft south of Cabo San Lazaro to 20N tonight through Thu morning. Similar winds in the Gulf of California will persist this evening through Fri, increasing locally to strong in the central Gulf late late tonight through late Thu night. Seas will build to 5-7 ft. Another pulse of NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California by early Fri behind a decaying cold front, with even larger seas expected, up to 16 ft. Seas of 8 ft or greater will spread across the entire open offshore waters this weekend. Fresh to strong SW-W winds will develop from 29.5N to 31.5N in the Gulf of California ahead of the decaying front Sat night, increasing to at least near gale force early Sun before diminishing Sun night. Another cold front may approach Baja California Norte Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are across the Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, 5-7 ft offshore Ecuador and SW of the Galapagos Islands, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days, increasing to near gale early Sat through early Mon, allowing for seas to build to 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula Thu night through Sun night, briefly strong near the Azuero Peninsula early Fri. A gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the other offshore waters of Guatemala Fri evening through Sat morning, with associated seas building to 8-13 ft there. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning associated with a cold front that has entered the far NW waters. Strong S to SW winds prevail elsewhere southeast of the front, to the N of 24N and W of 130W. Seas are 11 to 18 ft in building NW swell across this area. Elsewhere, 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 29N119W, with ridging extending from southern California through the high to beyond 20N140W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are immediately under the ridge, with moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to about 16N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, except ahead of the cold front. Seas of 8-13 ft in NW swell are between 20N and 25N. This NW swell is mixing with NE wind waves from about 06N to 20N west of 116W to support 8-10 ft combined seas. Seas are 6-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, outside of the NW waters Gale Warning discussed in the Special Features section, pulses of NW swell will propagate through the discussion waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the open waters by Sat night. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night into Sat west of 125W as the gradient tightens. Another pair of cold fronts with reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Stripling