000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101507 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 120 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW corner Gale Warning: A cold front currently extends from 30N127W to 29N132W, while a pre-frontal trough reaches from 30N124W to 24N136W. Fresh to strong winds are found just ahead of the front north of 29N, while associated seas are up to 21 ft near 30N134W. This front will dissipate through the day, however a deep low pressure system across the north Pacific will bring another cold front. The next front will approach by early Wed, and gale force SW winds will develop ahead of it just southeast of 30N140W by mid Wednesday morning. The front will push through the northern waters through mid-week, with gale force winds persisting ahead of it until Thu afternoon, mainly north of 26N. Reinforcing NW swell will move in with this system with seas building to up to around 30 ft near 30N140W by early Thu. The front will then quickly weaken Thu afternoon and night with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less Thu night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 10N86W to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 06N95W to 07N120W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 78W and 83W, from 04N to 09N between 104W and 115W, and from 05N to 08N between 122W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A plume of fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas to 8 ft are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Otherwise, a surface ridge prevails across the Baja California offshore waters, and has shifted slightly SW in advance of an approaching cold front. Winds are locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes, and moderate or weaker elsewhere. A set of NW swell has arrived ahead of the front with 6-10 ft seas offshore Baja California, highest northwest of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, high pressure will weaken today as the cold front approaches the Baja California Norte waters. The front is expected to dissipate as it reaches the Baja California Norte coast Tue evening. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to develop across the Baja waters this evening through Wed night as high pressure reorganizes west of the area. NW swell will build across the Baja California Norte waters tonight into early Wed, up to 14 ft northwest of Punta Eugenia. The NW swell will build seas to 8 ft all the way to 110W by early Thu before decaying. Another set of NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California by early Fri with even larger seas expected, up to 16 ft. Seas of 8 ft or greater will spread across the entire open offshore waters this weekend. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N-NE winds will continue to pulse through Wed morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will return late Thu evening, quickly increasing to gale force late Thu night through Sat night as high pressure surges across eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Seas will quickly build with this gap wind event, peaking around 16 ft Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds and 5-6 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, 5-8 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several days. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula Sat night. A gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the other offshore waters of Guatemala Fri night into early Sat with associated seas building to 8-12 ft there. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for details on conditions north of 25N including a gale force wind event in the northwest waters due to a deep low pressure system north of the area. South of 25N, a ridge of high pressure is across the waters from 20N to 25N with light to gentle anticyclonic winds under it. Moderate to fresh trades are south of the ridge and north of the ITCZ, with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. A set of NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater covers the waters north of 20N, while the NW swell combines with NE wind waves to support 8-10 ft seas from around 05N to 20N west of 120W. Seas are 6-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, outside of the developing gale event discussed in the Special Features section, pulses of NW swell will propagate through the discussion waters through the week and into the weekend, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the open waters by Sat night. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night into Sat west of 130W as the gradient tightens. $$ Lewitsky