876 AXPZ20 KNHC 100925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale force winds has lifted northward to 32N and out of the area in the past 12 hours, behind a cold front currently extends from 30N122W TO 26N128W. The front will move E and gradually dissipate by Tue night. A deep low pressure system across the north Pacific will bring the next cold front and gale force winds over the NW waters Wed morning through early Thu morning. Peak seas behind this next frontal system are expected to reach 30 ft across the far NW waters Wed evening through Thu morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W TO 09.5N85W TO 06N93W. The ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 08N122W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION is noted FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 82W, AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W AND 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the Baja California offshore waters, and has shifted slightly SW today, in advance of an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh SW to S winds have shifted into the outer waters of Baja Norte, while gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail elsewhere across the remaining Baja waters to 20N. Seas have continued to subside across the Baja waters S of Punta Eugenia, and are 6-8 ft. New NW swell is moving into Baja Norte waters raising seas to 7 to 12 ft. Moderate NW winds are noted across the southern Gulf of California, extending to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the middle and southern Gulf are in the 2 to 4 ft range. Strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14.5N, with seas 6-8 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to variable winds. For the forecast, high pressure will weaken through Tue as the cold front approaches the Baja Norte waters. The front is expected to dissipate as it reaches the Baja Norte coast Tue evening. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to develop across the Baja waters Tue evening through Wed night as the high pressure reorganizes W of the area. NW swell will build slightly across the Baja California Norte waters tonight, while seas remain at 6-8 ft or less elsewhere. New NW swell will begin to build across the regional waters Tue night through mid week, raising seas offshore of Baja Norte to 12 ft and greater. Strong northerly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through mid week. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is expected on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-4 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong each night through mid week, increase to near 30 kt Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue. NW swell impacting the area waters will subside tonight through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more informations on the next gale warning over the NW waters. Presently, a cold front extends into the area waters from 30N122W TO 26N128W. A 1022 mb high center reside SE of the front near 24N122W. Strong SW to W winds are occurring behind the front, N of 28N between 124W and 140W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail elsewhere behind the front. Seas are currently 1 to 20 ft in NW swell across these waters, and are highest across the far NW. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends WSW from the high to beyond 140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and west of 115W. The recent large NW to N swell continues to subside, with seas of 7-10 ft over much of the discussion waters. New NW swell is propagating over the northern waters, with seas in the 9-12 ft range between 25N and the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, seas will continue to subside S of 20N tonight. Successive pulses of NW swell will propagate through the discussion waters through the week, with SW to W gales developing Wed as discussed above, followed by high seas. Otherwise, high pressure and moderate winds will dominate the trade wind belt. $$ Stripling