000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jan 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The next Pacific low pressure system that will impact the region is currently located well NNE of the Hawaiian Islands. This system and an associated cold front will sweep across the far NW waters tonight through Mon, supporting strong SW winds north of 25N and west of 125W ahead of the front through tonight. Seas will build to around 17 ft during this time. Gale force winds will develop briefly within 90 nm SE of the front during the next several hours through Mon morning, and then behind the front N of 29N midday Mon through evening before the low and front lift NE of the region. Peak seas behind the front Mon afternoon are expected to reach 20 ft. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10.5N84W to 11N72W to 06N92W. The ITCZ continues from 06N92W to 07N112W to 07.5N135W to beyond 06.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 114W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge prevails across the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell dominating the regional waters the past few days continues to subside. Associated seas range 7-9 ft across the open waters off Baja Mexico to Cabo Corrientes. Farther south, seas are 6-9 ft across the offshore waters from Cabo Corrientes to the Tehuantepec area, and 9 to 10 ft across the far outer waters. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula, while moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California, extending to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf are in the 3 to 5 ft range. Strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 15N, with seas near 8 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the area through Wed. New NW swell will enter Baja Norte waters tonight and dominate seas through Mon night. Strong northerly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong each night through mid week. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Large NW swell offshore of southern Mexico will impact the offshore waters of Central America into early next week, with seas across the far outer waters peaking at 7 to 8 ft Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on an upcoming gale warning over the NW waters. Surface ridging extends NE to SW across the waters N of 20N, centered on a 1020 mb high near 26.5N121W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 19N and west of 115W. The recent large NW to N swell continues to move through the regional waters and gradually subside. Peak seas of 11-14 ft are occurring south of 14N and between 97W and 114W. Seas elsewehre across the trade wind zone are 8-11 ft. Across the far N waters, a cold front approaching the region has reached near 30N140W. Strong SW to S winds to around 30 kt are N of 26N and W of 128W. New NW swell across this area is producing seas of 12-17 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, seas will continue to subside S of 24N overnight through Mon. New NW swell over the NW waters will dominate the northern water tonight before a reinforcing pulse of NW swell arrives early Mon associated with the gale force frontal system. This next system will impact the NW waters Mon through Tue. Another similar frontal system is expected to move through the NW waters Wed through Thu. Weak high pressure and moderate winds will dominate the trade wind belt. $$ Stripling