000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080927
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The next Pacific low pressure system that will impact the region
is currently located well north of the Hawaiian Islands. This
system and associated front will sweep across the far NW waters 
late Sun through Mon, supporting strong SW winds north of 25N 
and west of 125W through Sun night. Seas will build to 17 ft or 
higher. Gales will develop briefly ahead of the front early Mon, 
and then behind the front Mon afternoon before the low and front
lift NE of the region.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N72W to 09N83W to 06N94W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N94W to 05.5N100W to beyond 06N140W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of 
the ITCZ between 115W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the Baja California 
offshore waters. Large NW swell dominates the regional waters,
buthas peaked offshore of Baja. Associated seas ranges from 8-9
ft offshore Baja Norte to 10-12 ft offshore of Baja Sur, and 10 
to 13 ft from offshore of the entrance to the Gulf of California 
to the waters offshore SW Mexico near 101W. Moderate NW winds are
noted across most of the Gulf of California and extend to the 
waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf are in the 3 to 
5 ft range. Strong northerly winds to 25 kt prevail over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec north of 15N with seas to near 8 ft. The 
remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds.

For the forecast, the large NW swell dominating the offshore
waters of the Baja California peninsula and southwestern Mexico 
during the past 48 hours will continue to propagate SE across 
the eastern Pacific through early next week. Seas will slowly 
subside from N to S across the regional waters tonight through 
Sun. Early Sun, new NW swell will move into the Baja waters and 
dominate through Mon. Moderate NW winds over the Gulf of 
California will continue through Tue. Weak high pressure will 
persist just W of the region through Tue afternoon and maintain
gentle to moderate winds offshore of Baja. Strong northerly 
winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and offshore to
near 14N each night through next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are 
occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly 
winds and seas of 4-5 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 4 to 6 ft 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh winds across the Papagayo region will
pulse to around 20 kt each night through mid week. Moderate to 
fresh northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
through Tue. The large NW offshore of Mexico will move 
southeastward and impact the offshore waters of Central America 
Sun into early next week. Highest seas of 6 to 9 ft are expected 
early Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, centered on a 1023 mb
high near 27N122W. The ridge extends W-SW beyond 140W, and
to the south of an approaching cold front along 30N, from 134W 
to 140W. Large NW to N swell continues moving through the 
regional waters, with peak seas of 10-15 ft now southward of 18N
and W of 110W. Across the far N waters, strong SW to S winds are
N of 28N between 121W and 127W, while moderate W winds prevail S
of the front to 27N and are W of 129W. New NW swell across this 
area is producing seas of 10-14 ft. South of the ridge, moderate 
to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 17N, and W of
115W, where the large NNW swell has arrived. Seas across this
area are 10-14 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the
ITCZ. The large NW swell has reach this area as well, and is 
producing seas of 9-13 ft.

For the forecast, the large NW swell has already begun to subside
from N to S. However new NW associated with the front entering 
the NW waters will dominate the northern waters through Sun 
before another pulse of NW swell arrives early Mon associated 
with the next gale force frontal system. This next system will 
impact the NW waters Mon through Tue. Another similar frontal 
system is expected to move through the NW waters Wed through Thu.
Weak high pressure and moderate winds will dominate the trade 
wind belt.

$$
Stripling