900 AXPZ20 KNHC 070936 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N71W to 09N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 07N128W to beyond 05.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 110W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore waters, centered on 1024 mb high pressure near 31N122W. Moderate N winds prevail across the Baja Norte waters east of 120W to Punta Eugenia. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the Baja Sur waters. Very large NW swell continues to dominate the regional waters tonight. Recent satellite altimeter data confirmed seas of 12 to 18 ft across all of the Baja California offshore waters extending southward to 19N, with highest seas off of Baja Sur. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted across most of the Gulf of California, with light to moderate NW winds across the near shore waters from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Escondido. Seas in the central and southern Gulf are 3 to 6 ft. Strong northerly winds to 30 kt prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14N with seas to 10 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 6-9 ft off the southern coast of Mexico, and building. For the forecast, very large NW swell will continue to propagate southeastward through Sun, with seas in the 12-18 ft range off central and southern Baja California waters prevailing tonight. This large swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero Sat into Sat night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California through late Sat. Strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish through Sat afternoon. A smaller area of strong winds are expected to pulse each night across the Tehuantepec area through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend northward to offshore of central Nicaragua. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas of less than 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Sat, then diminishing to moderate to fresh by Sat night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Large NW swell impacting the Mexican offshore waters will subside as it continues southeastward, and moves across the outer offshore waters of Central America Sun through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, ahead of an approaching cold front to the NW that dips to 31N137W. Very large swell NW to N is moving through the regional waters north of 06N tonight. Recent satellite altimeter data showed the highest seas of 18 to 20 ft in the area near 12N123W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 07N and as far east as the Baja California Sur coast. Across the far NW waters, a cold front is approaching from the NW, with strong SW winds moving into the area north of 28N and west of 129W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 17N with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the large NW swell will continue spreading across the basin, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 06N by late tonight, with seas to 10 ft reaching the equator on Sat. The next low pressure system and associated front will sweep across the far NW waters Sun, supporting strong SW winds north of 26N and west of 130W through Sun night, and raising seas to 17 ft or higher. Gales may develop along this front Sun night into Mon, and behind the front on Mon. $$ Stripling