000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 07N87W. The ITCZ continues from 07N87W to beyond 06N140W. No significant convection is noted along the boundaries at this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the area. Moderate N to NE winds are to the east of 120W. Very large NW swell continues across the Baja offshore waters, generated from the much advertised deep cyclone that moved into Northern California on Thu. Seas are estimated at 10 to 18 ft east of the Baja California coast. Meanwhile, seas range 7 to 12 ft over the Baja California Sur nearshore waters and 12 to 17 ft across the waters farther offshore. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted across the Baja waters south of Punta Eugenia, and in the southern Gulf of California, with moderate winds extending to just W of Cabo Corrientes. Light winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas in the southern Gulf are 3 to 5 ft. Strong to near gale force northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 11N with seas up to 10 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 6-8 ft off the southern coast of Mexico. For the forecast, very high seas will continue to propagate southeastward over the next few days. Very large NW swell is expected through Sat with seas in the 12-18 ft range off Baja California Sur prevailing tonight. Large swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero into Sat night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California through late Sat. Northerly near-gale winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue improving through Sat afternoon. Strong winds are expected to pulse each night across the area through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sat, then diminishing to moderate to fresh by Sat night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Moderate long period NW swell will impact the northern offshore waters of Central America this weekend and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Very large swell is moving through the regional waters north of 14N tonight. This morning's satellite altimeter data show the highest seas of 22 ft along and north of 24N122W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 10N and as far east as the central Baja California coast. 8 ft swell has reached the equator. Peak wave periods are generally 17-20 seconds. Across the far NW waters, a cold front is approaching from the NW, with strong SW winds moving into the area north of 28N and west of 133W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 18N with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the large NW swell will continue spreading across the basin, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 07N by tonight. 10 ft swell will reach the equator on Sat. The next low pressure system and associated front will continue moving east north of 30N supporting strong SW winds north of 28N and west of 130W through tonight. A stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may generate gale force winds north of 27N and west of 130W and bring another round of large swell across the basin. $$ ERA