000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure behind the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico has triggered a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale force northerly winds prevail over the region. Winds will increase to gale force this evening and continue through Fri morning. Seas will build to 8-10 ft tonight through Fri. Strong northerly winds will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning. Strong winds could return once again by Sat night into Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on both warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N83W to 07N100W. The ITCZ continues from 07N100W to a low pres near 08N119W 1013 mb to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 110W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific and beginning to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters. NW moderate winds are behind the front. Seas are quickly increasing over the Baja California Norte waters, with 12 ft seas approaching Guadalupe Island, reaching as far south as 27N and as far west as 118W. Seas are up to nearly 20 ft in the far NW corner of the offshore waters. Meanwhile, seas range 8 to 9 ft over the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Moderate northerly winds are noted in the southern Gulf of California with light winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are up to 4 ft. Strong to near gale force northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas up to 8 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 5-8 ft off the southern coast of Mexico. For the forecast, a cold front will continue moving eastward over the Baja California offshore waters, reaching the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia tonight. The front will weaken by Fri morning. Very high seas associated with this front north of 35N will continue to propagate south of 30N over the next few days. Very high NW swell is expected through early Sat with seas building to over 20 ft off Baja California Norte, and the 12-18 ft range off Baja California Sur by tonight. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero late Fri night into Sat night. Behind the front, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California from Fri through Sat. Strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale force this evening with seas building 8 to 10 ft tonight into Fri morning. Winds will drop below gale force by Fri morning with conditions improving by Sat. Strong winds could return once again by Sat night into Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 6-7 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sat with fresh winds continuing through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Moderate long period NW swell will impact the northern offshore waters of Central America this weekend and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific from 30N119W to 20N140W. Behind the front, winds are gentle to moderate from the N-NW. Ahead of the front, winds have weakened to gentle from the SW. This front is connected to a storm- force located near 47N130W. The highest seas are nearly 30 ft, found near 30N, between 124W and 130W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 15N and as far east as 118W. 8 ft swell has reached the equator. Wave periods are generally 15-18 seconds. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 18N with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, NW swell from the storm force low north of the area will continue spreading across the basin. 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 07N by Fri night. 10 ft swell will reach the equator by Sat into Sat night. Another system will pass north of the area Fri, bringing strong winds north of 28N and west of 130W. A stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may generate gale force winds north of 27N and west of 130W and bring another round of high swell across the basin. $$ AReinhart