000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning north of 27N: A 956 mb hurricane force low pressure centered near 40N135W will continue to move northeastward, dragging a strong cold front that extends southward and southwestward from this low to 30N129W to 21N140W. Recent ASCAT satellite data indicate that gale force winds are occurring ahead of and behind the front north of 28N between 127W-140W. Seas in these waters are 16 to 29 ft. The cold front will move southeastward, reaching from 30N120W to 22N130W to 20N140W early Thu and from 30N112W to 23N120W to 21N128W early Fri, then weakening and dissipating late Fri. Gale force winds will continue east of the front through today, and west of the front through this evening, mainly north of 28N between 125W and 140W. Very large NW swell has moved in across the northern waters, with seas peaking near 30 ft this evening along 30N. Seas of 20 ft or greater will reach as far south as 24N tonight through Thu evening, and as far east as 119W Thu night. Winds will diminish across the area Thu afternoon as high pressure moves in behind the front. However, large NW to N swell will continue to progress southeastward across the forecast waters through Sat, bringing 13 ft seas off Cabo San Lucas and 12 ft seas as far south as 08N120W. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind the cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico resulting in the tightening of the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected tonight through early Sat. A period of minimal gale force winds, especially in gusts, is likely on Thu evening. Seas will build to 10-11 ft on Thu night into early Fri. Conditions will improve late Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on both warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N94W to 07.5N109W, then continues W of a 1013 mb low pres from 07N115W to 09N130W to 08N140W. The 1013 mb low pres is centered near 09N112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 81W and 86W, and from 07.5N to 10N between 108.5W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Weak ridging prevails over the Baja California peninsula and adjacent waters. Most areas near Mexico are experiencing light to gentle winds, with a few areas of moderate winds in the southern Gulf of California. S winds are also starting to increase now well to the west of Baja California Norte as a cold front, currently extending from 31N128W to 24N135W, approaches the area. Seas are 3-6 ft off SW Mexico, east of 105W. Seas are 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California, and up to 3-5 ft at the entrance of the Gulf, increasing to 7 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 7-8 ft off Baja California Sur and 7-10 ft off Baja California Norte, in NW swell. For the forecast, southerly winds off Baja California Norte will increase to fresh to strong this evening as a cold front approaches the waters. The cold front will reach those waters Thu, then begin weakening as it reaches the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia Thu night. Very large W to NW swell will follow the front Thu afternoon through early Sat, with seas in the 16-21 ft range off Baja California Norte, and the 12-18 ft range off Baja California Sur. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero late Fri night into Sat night. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin tonight and continue into early Sat, with strong to near gale force N winds expected. A brief period of minimal gale winds, especially in gusts, is likely Thu evening. Seas may build up to 10-11 ft late Thu into early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 88W. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sun, with seas up to 7 ft Thu through Sat, and briefly to 8 ft Fri. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning over the NW waters. Stronger winds associated with the system over the northern waters are occurring north of 25N and west of 122W. Seas are 12 to 29 ft in these waters, highest NW. Moderate easterly breezes and seas of 7-9 ft are prevalent from the ITCZ to 17N and west of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, NW to N swell from the gale event described above will spread large seas across the basin tonight through Sat, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 08N Fri night into Sat. Seas up to 10 ft from this swell will reach the Equator over the weekend. Looking ahead, another storm system will pass well north of the area Fri through Sat, producing fresh to strong winds north of 28N and west of 125W. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will enter the NW waters by Sun night. Gale force winds are possible Sun night through Mon night north of 28N west of 125W. $$ Hagen