000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040333 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 969 mb hurricane force low pressure centered near 38N143W will continue to deepen as it moves northeastward. A strong cold front extends southward and southwestward from this low. The cold front will enter the area, crossing 30N140W in the next few hours, and move southeastward on Wed and Thu. Gale force winds are forecast on both sides of the front this evening through Wed evening, mainly north of 27N between 125W and 140W. The front will also usher in very large NW swell across the northern waters, with seas peaking near 28 to 30 ft Wed into early Thu along 30N. Seas of 20 ft or greater will reach as far south as 25N Wed night through Thu evening, and as far east as 119W Thu night. Winds will diminish across the area Thu night as high pressure moves in behind the front. However, large NW to N swell will continue to progress southeastward across the forecast waters through Sat, bringing 13 ft seas off Cabo San Lucas and 12 ft seas as far south as 08N120W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 09N89W to 08N100W. The ITCZ continues from 08N100W to a 1011 mb low pres near 09N108W to 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 06N and east of 85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The 1022 mb high pressure system remains positioned well to the west of the offshore waters of Baja California and it extends eastward towards Mexico. The weak high pressure regime allows for light to gentle variable winds and seas of 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate SW winds and seas of 7-10 ft prevail in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident in the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present in the offshore waters of SW Mexico. Meanwhile, the gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo sustain moderate easterly winds and seas of 4-5 ft well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador, especially south of 12N. In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail over the waters off Baja California through tonight, leading to gentle to moderate winds. S winds off Baja California Norte will increase to fresh to strong late Wed as a cold front approaches the waters. The cold front will reach those waters Thu, then begin weakening as it reaches the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia Thu night. Very large W to NW swell will follow the front Thu night through Fri night, with seas in the 17-22 ft range off Baja California Norte, and the 13-18 ft range off Baja California Sur. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero Fri night into Sat. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast for late Wed into early Sat, with strong to near gale force N winds expected. A brief period of minimal gale winds is possible Thu evening. Seas may build up to 10 ft late Thu into early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed over Panama are affecting the offshore waters. Moderate to locally easterly trade winds and seas of 4-5 ft are found in the Papagayo region, extending westerly to 90W. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 1-2 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere in the basin, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the Papagayo region will increase to strong speeds on Wed and continue into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama Wed into the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning over the NW waters. The subtropical ridge remains positioned near 26N120W. Outside of the influence of the hurricane-force low near the NW corner of our area, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found between the ITCZ and 18N and west of 110W. Seas in the area described are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, swell from the upcoming gale event described above will spread large seas in NW to N swell across the basin Wed night through Sat, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 08N. Seas up to 10 ft from this swell will reach the Equator over the weekend. Looking ahead, another storm system will pass well north of the area over the weekend, sending renewed NW swell into the northern waters by Sun. $$ DELGADO