000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030303
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong low pressure will approach from the west on Tue, then 
pass N of the area during the middle of the week. Associated cold
front will shift into the NW waters late Tue or early Wed. Strong
to gale force winds are forecast on either side of the front 
late Tue into Thu. The front will also usher in a large set of 
NW swell into the NW waters, with seas peaking near 27 ft Wed 
into early Thu. Conditions will improve late Thu.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast at website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N84W
to 08N95W to a 1011 mb low pres near 07N107W to 07N112W. The ITCZ
stretches from 07N112W to 08N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is observed near the low pres from
05N to 12N and between 101W and 108W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure system well to the west of the Baja
California peninsula extends eastward into the offshore waters of
Mexico. Light to locally moderate variable winds are present in 
the Gulf of California, along with seas of 1-3 ft. Meanwhile,
the weak pressure regime allows for light to moderate northerly 
winds in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these
waters are 5-10 ft due to the persistent NW swell in the region.
The highest seas are found north of 25N.

Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, light to locally moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas off Baja 
California will subside into Tue, before building again on Wed as
a new set of NW swell propagates into the area. The next gale 
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible late
Wed into Sat. Seas may build up to 11 ft late Thu into early Fri.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed over
Costa Rica and Panama earlier today are also affecting portions 
of the Gulf of Panama and offshore waters of Panama and Costa 
Rica. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present in the Papagayo
region, extending westward to 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-6 
ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are found south of the
monsoon trough. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are 3-6 ft,
with the highest seas occurring SW of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the Papagayo region 
will increase to strong speeds on Wed and continue through Sun.
Seas will approach 8 ft on Fri. Gentle to occasionally moderate 
winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with 
slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for more on an upcoming gale warning over the NW
waters.

A 1020 mb high pressure system is positioned near 24N127W and
weakly extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. A few
showers are noted near 12N94W due to low-level convergence.
Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent elsewhere in the
basin. The ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds south of 20N and west of 110W. Seas in these waters
are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring north of
27N. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, 
along with seas of 5-7 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, aside from the upcoming gale warning, little
change in the current conditions are expected the next couple of
days. 

$$
DELGADO