061 
AXPZ20 KNHC 020923
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0905 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough stretches from the coast of Panama near 
09N84W to 08N100W to 09N115W. The ITCZ extends from 09N119W to 
07N130W to beyond 08N140W. A surface trough is found along 116W,
extending from 08N to 13N. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen on satellite imagery from 04N to 10N and between 101W and 
115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge remains centered to the west of the Baja
California offshore waters. A dissipating cold front extends from
the coast of Sonora to 22N120W, crossing the central Gulf of
California and Baja California Sur. No significant convection is
associated with this feature. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured fresh to strong westerly winds in the northern Gulf
of California. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh
westerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the remainder
of the Gulf of California.

The aforementioned scatterometer satellite pass also show fresh
to locally strong NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja
California Norte. Seas in these waters are 9-14 ft, with the
highest seas occurring north of 29N. Moderate or weaker northerly winds
and seas of 5-9 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja
California Sur. Light to locally moderate winds and seas of 3-5 
ft are found in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of
California and offshore waters of Baja California Norte will 
diminish to moderate speeds on Mon afternoon. NW swell will
diminish somewhat into Tue, before building up on Wed as a cold
front approaches the region by Thu. The next gale force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible on Thu into Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to
locally strong easterly breezes are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo, extending westward to 88W. Seas in these waters are 5-6
ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are found south of
the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in the waters described.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds over the 
Papagayo region will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on 
Mon. Winds will increase to strong speeds starting Wed and 
continue into late in the week. Gentle to occasionally moderate 
winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with 
slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge remains positioned near 28N132W and
dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific.
Low-level convergence is generating a few showers from 13N to 18N
and between 106W and 109W. A dissipating cold front extends from
Baja California Sur to 22N121W and no deep convection is
associated with this boundary. The rest of the region is under 
fairly tranquil weather conditions. The high pressure is 
sustaining moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N and west
of 115W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to 
occasionally fresh southerly winds are found south of the ITCZ, 
along with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a strong low pressure will approach from the 
west on Tue, then pass N of the area during the middle of the 
week. Associated cold front will shift into the NW waters late 
Tue/early Wed. Gale force winds are forecast on either side of 
the front late Tue into Wed. The front will also usher in a 
large set of NW swell into the NW waters, with seas peaking near 
25 ft Wed into Thu. Elsewhere, the dissipating cold front 
currently across the northern waters will continue to move
southeastward and dissipate on Mon.


$$
DELGADO