000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020315
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 10N86W 
to 07N100W to 09N115W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N119W to 08N130W
to beyond 08N140W. A surface trough is found along 116W,
extending from 08N to 13N. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 05N to 10N and E of 89W. Similar convection is 
present from 04N to 09N and between 109W and 114W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure system near 29N132W extends southwestward to
the Revillagigedo Islands. A cold front extends from NW Mexico, 
across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte 
and into the NE Pacific near 23N123W. No significant convection 
is associated with the frontal boundary. The pressure gradient 
between the strong ridge and lower pressures due to the cold 
front result in fresh to strong SW winds are occurring in the 
northern Gulf of California waters. Seas in these waters are 4-7 
ft. Moderate or weaker winds are present in the rest of the Gulf 
waters, along with seas of 2-4 ft.

Fresh to locally strong NW winds are evident off the Baja
California waters, north of 26N. NW swell is producing seas in 
these waters in the range of 8-12 ft. Moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 5-8 ft prevail in the remainder of the offshore
waters of Baja California. Light to locally moderate winds and
seas of 3-5 ft are found in the rest of the Mexican offshore
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of
California will diminish through Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds
west of Baja California will also diminish through Mon. A series
of sets of NW swell will prevail W of Baja California through 
the week. The next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is possible later this week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are observed in the
Papagayo region, along with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle 
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds remain south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 
the 3-5 ft range, except for 2-4 ft near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds over the 
Papagayo region will diminish to moderate to fresh on Mon. Winds
will increase to strong speeds late in the week. Gentle to 
occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next 
several days with slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high pressure system is located near 29N132W and
dominates the the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. A
cold front extends from NW Mexico to 22N123W, where it
transitions into a stationary front that continues westward to
24N140W. No deep convection is noted near this frontal boundary.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are evident north of the front,
especially east of 125W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
trade winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, north of the ITCZ to 20N and 
west of 120W. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle
to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft exist. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds with seas of 5-7 ft prevail 
south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, deep low pressure will approach from the west 
early this week, then pass NW of the area, then N of the area
during the middle of the week. Associated cold front will shift 
into the NW waters late Tue/early Wed. Gale force winds,
especially in gusts, are possible on either side of the front 
late Tue/early Wed. The front will also usher in a large set of 
NW swell into the NW waters, with seas peaking near 25 ft Wed 
into Thu. Elsewhere, the cold front currently across the northern
waters will shift eastward and start to dissipate from Baja 
California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro to 22N121W by early Mon. 

$$
DELGADO