000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012029
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N92W to 08N117W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N117W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 110W and 113W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Elsewhere, a cold front extends from northern Baja California
Norte SW to near 24N140W. Fresh to locally strong winds, and 
seas of 8-11 ft prevail west of the front. Light to gentle winds,
and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere across the discussion 
waters. Strong to near- gale force winds are noted over the
northern Gulf of California with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas of 2 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of 
California, except 5-7 ft over the northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of
California will diminish through Mon. Fresh winds west of Baja 
California will diminish through Mon. A series of sets of NW 
swell will prevail W of Baja California through the week. The 
next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
possible later this week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are noted 
over the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
exist south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft 
range, except 2 to 4 ft near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds over the 
Papagayo region will diminish today. Gentle to occasionally 
moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days 
with slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 20N and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to locally fresh trade winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft, north of 
the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. A cold front extends from 
northern Baja California Norte SW to near 24N140W. Fresh to 
locally strong winds are north of the front east of 122W. Long- 
period NW swell is producing seas in the 7-11 ft range north of 
25N. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to 
locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft exist. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds with seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail
south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, deep low pressure will approach from the west 
early this week, then pass NW of the area then N of the area the 
middle of the week. Associated cold front will shift into the NW 
waters late Tue/early Wed. Gale force winds are possible on 
either side of the front late Tue/early Wed. The front will also 
usher in a large set of NW swell into the NW waters, with seas 
peaking near 25 ft Wed into Thu. Elsewhere, the cold front
currently across the northern waters will shift eastward and 
start to dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro 
to 22N121W by early Mon. 

$$
AL