000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011431
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: Near-gale to gale 
force SW to W gap winds over the northern Gulf of California 
will diminish early today. Please read the latest Pacific Ocean 
High Sea Forecast at website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Offshore 
Waters Forecasts at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 07N93W to 08N117W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N117W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of 83W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on a gale warning over the Gulf of
California. 

Elsewhere, a cold front extends from northern Baja California
Norte SW to near 25N140W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11
ft prevail west of the front. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas of 4-6 ft are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2 ft or less 
prevail over the Gulf of California, except 5-7 ft over the
northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gale force winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish early today, with fresh to strong winds 
diminishing through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are west of Baja 
California will diminish through early Mon. Large NW swell W of 
Baja California will subside through Mon afternoon. The next gale
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible 
later this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are noted over the 
Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds exist 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, 
except 2 to 4 ft near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds over the 
Papagayo region will diminish today. Gentle to occasionally 
moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days 
with slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 20N and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to locally fresh trade winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft, north of 
the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. A cold front extends from 
northern Baja California Norte SW to near 25N140W. Fresh to 
locally strong winds are north of the front east of 122W. Long- 
period NW swell is producing seas in the 7-11 ft range north of 
9 to 11 ft seas north of 25N. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough, gentle to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 5 
to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with seas of 5 
to 6 ft prevail south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward and start 
to dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro to 
22N121W by early Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the 
front will support a large area of fresh trade winds over the 
tropical Pacific waters along the ITCZ west of 135W by early Mon,
along with combined seas 7 to 8 ft with a component of NW swell.

$$
AL