000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311425
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1420 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front approaching
Baja California will increase westerly winds toward the peninsula
starting this evening. This will produce near- gale to gale force SW
to W gap winds over the northern Gulf of California late tonight
through early Sun. Please read the latest Pacific Ocean High Sea
Forecast at website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Offshore 
Waters Forecasts at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N100W to 08N113W. 
The ITCZ extends from 08N113W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 92W and 100W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern across the area is resulting in gentle to
locally moderate winds across the forecast area. Seas are in the
4-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, with seas 2 ft or
less over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, westerly gap winds at the northern Gulf of
California will reach near-gale to gale force late tonight 
through early Sun. Winds will further subside through Sun 
evening. Fresh to locally near-gale northerly winds can be
expected across the waters west of Baja California from early 
Sun through early Mon. Large NW swell will persist through Mon 
afternoon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted over the Papagayo 
region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate northerly winds are seen at the Gulf of Panama,
while gentle to moderate southerly winds exist elsewhere south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across all the offshore waters range 
from 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 5 ft near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the Papagayo 
region will increase slightly this evening through Sun afternoon.
Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere 
for the next several days with slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of 20N and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds, and seas of 6-8 ft north of the ITCZ to 20N, 
and west of 120W. A cold front has propagated into the NW waters,
extending from 30N135W to 28N140W. Fresh to locally strong winds
are in the vicinity of the front. The front has ushered in a set
of NW swell, with seas currently peaking near 11 ft. Elsewhere N
of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds, and
seas of 6-7 ft, prevail. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
5-6 ft prevail south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward toward Baja 
California through this evening. The front will reach from 
northern Baja California Norte to 25N130W by late tonight, then 
start to dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro 
out to 20N120W by late Sun. Strong NW winds and 9 to 12 ft NW 
swell will accompany the front. High pressure building in the 
wake of the front will support a large area of fresh trade winds 
over the tropical Pacific waters along the ITCZ west of 135W by 
early Mon morning, along with combined seas 7 to 8 ft with a 
component of NW swell. 

$$
AL