000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311003
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front approaching
Baja California will increase westerly winds toward the peninsula
starting this evening. This is going to cause SW to W gap winds 
at the northern Gulf of California to reach near-gale to gale 
force late tonight through Sun morning. Please read the latest 
Pacific Ocean High Sea Forecast at website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Offshore 
Waters Forecasts at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N100W to 08N117W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 
77W and 95W. An ITCZ extends from 08N117W to 08N130W to beyond 
07N140W. Widely scattered showers are present from 04N to 11N 
between 117W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Convergent winds north of the monsoon trough are triggering 
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the far 
southern offshore waters of Michoacan, Guerrero and Oaxaca 
States in southern Mexico. A weakening high pressure west of Baja
California near 27N127W is sustaining gentle to moderate 
northerly winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas across the offshore 
waters of Baja California and central Mexico. Light to gentle 
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found in the Gulf of California. 
Mainly gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the 
southern Mexico offshore zones.

For the forecast, westerly gap winds at the northern Gulf of 
California will reach near-gale to gale force late tonight 
through mid Sun morning, then gradually subside through Sun 
evening. This is related to a cold front moving across Baja 
California, which will also bring fresh to locally near-gale 
northerly winds across the waters west of Baja California from 
early Sun morning through early Mon morning. In addition, large 
NW swell will persist through Mon afternoon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted over the Papagayo 
region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate northerly winds are seen at the Gulf of Panama,
while gentle to moderate southerly winds exist elsewhere south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across all the offshore waters range 
from 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 5 ft near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the Papagayo region 
will become fresh to strong this evening through Sun afternoon. 
Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for
the next several days with slight to moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a weakening high pressure near
27N127W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough to 16N, and west of 120W. The associated 
wind waves are mixing with longer period NW swell dominating much
of the area west of 120W/125W, resulting in combined seas of 6 
to 8 ft across the tropical waters along and north of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough west of 110W, except 8 to 10 ft north of 
27 and west of 130W due to a new set of NW swell. South of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southerly winds with 5 to
7 ft seas in mixed moderate NW and S swell are evident.

For the forecast, a cold front currently near 31N137W will move 
east-southeastward toward Baja California through this evening. 
The front will reach from northern Baja California Norte to 
25N130W by late tonight, then start to dissipate from Baja 
California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro out to 20N120W by late Sun. 
Strong NW winds and 9 to 12 ft NW swell will accompany the 
front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will 
support a large area of fresh trade winds over the tropical 
Pacific waters along the ITCZ west of 135W by early Mon morning, 
along with combined seas 7 to 8 ft with a component of NW swell. 

$$

Forecaster Chan